Jacksonville, Fl. — THE TROPICS:
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This blog is written & updated daily by *me* - Mike Buresh.
Tropics threats/impacts for Jacksonville/NE Florida/SE Georgia: There will continue to be some peripheral/outer bands from Isaias - through Saturday that will be capable of very heavy rain, gusty winds & isolated tornadoes with some localized flooding... though fast movement of individual cells Saturday should result in lower amounts than past days. It’s saturated though, so it won’t take much rain to cause ponding &/or flooding.
The Atlantic Basin Overview:
The Atlantic hurricane season is June 1st through Nov. 30th. The peak of the season is September 10th.
The average date of the ninth named storm of the season is September 9th (8 so far)... first Atlantic hurricane avg. date is Aug. 11 (none this season so far).
The NHC upgraded the area of low pressure over the Western Gulf to tropical depression #9 Tue. afternoon & to tropical depression “Isaias” early Wednesday followed by rapid intensification to a hurricane Wed. evening about 11:30pm - the first hurricane of the Atlantic season... & became a Cat. 3 Fri. morning... & made landfall near Destin in the far Western Fl. Panhandle about 9:30pm EDT with strongest winds estimated to be near 105 mph (165 km/h)/Cat. 2. The estimated minimum central pressure was 971 mb (28.67 inches). Isaias quickly became post-tropical (typical of tropical systems later in the season once making landfall) early Saturday morning. The intensity leveled off then decreased some upon approach to the coast due to strong westerly wind shear & some dry air intrusion. Still... Isaias - the first U.S. landfalling hurricane since Milton in 2024 - & its impacts were significant - major near & just east of the eye - from Southeast Mississippi to especially Southeast Alabama to the Central & Western Fl. Panhandle with strong winds, heavy rain & tornadoes.
( “Isaias” (repeat from 2020) was memorable 6 years ago for the flooding & tornado outbreak from the Carolina’s to Mid-Atlantic to New England.)
Isaias will continue weakening well inland while the remnant low pressure system turns more northeast through the Tennessee & Southern Ohio Valley this weekend while still dumping heavy rain along with an isolated tornado threat for Florida to Virginia Saturday.
A combination of factors made the forecast for Isaias - especially the intensity - challenging to say the least. The AI models did quite well even with genesis which has often been a shortcoming. But a shout out to the ol’ & often much maligned American GFS model for also sniffing out this one many days in advance. The European model had its share of problems. The UKMET model did pretty well overall.
Wind shear was strong - out of the west/southwest at 25-40+ mph across the Northern Gulf but was weaker during formative stages through early Friday farther to the south. There was a fair amount of dry mid & upper level air advancing from the north toward the Northwest Gulf arriving in tandem with landfall at which point the underside (south) of Isaias was quickly scoured away. This surge of dry air from west to east will enhance the wind & possibly tornado threat Saturday to the east of Isaias’s track.
Working in favor of Isaias - the Gulf was plenty warm. In fact, the hurricane passed over an eddy of very deep warm ocean water over the Central Gulf. Reasonably strong upper level divergence (air spreading apart/a “chimney” effect) due to the proximity of an upper level trough to the north was also helpful. And last but not least, a MJO “pulse” is in a favorable position to enhance tropical activity over the Atlantic Basin, particularly the Gulf.
South Fl. Water Management District:
Birmingham N.W.S. radar loop:
Tallahassee N.W.S. radar loop:
Water temps. in the Gulf are at least in the 80s... shear has been on the order of 25-40+ mph over the Northern Gulf:
A map of deep oceanic heat content (OHC) shows a warm “eddy” that was in the path of Isaias:
7-day rainfall forecast nationally:
Upper level model (Euro) forecast for Fri. night clearly shows the ridge of high pressure near/east of Florida & the trough of low pressure over Texas - the “alleyway”:
Wider view of shear pattern:
2026 has established a record for the satellite era - since 1966 - for no Atlantic hurricanes on or before Sept. 11. Strong wind shear has dominated much of the Atlantic Basin - especially south of about 20 degrees N. This is a hallmark of an El Nino season - see the “Buresh Blog” for more on our strong Pacific El Nino. There have been two seasons - since the mid 1800s - with zero Atlantic hurricanes - 1907 & 1914. Isaias found a little “sweet spot” over the Western & Central Gulf that couched between the strongest shear over very warm water & with some extra help from a pulse of the MJO, so Oct. 7, 2026 is now the latest date during the satellite era for the first Atlantic hurricane of the season.
‘Velocity potential anomalies’ below. “Rising” air (green lines) equates with an uptick in overall convection. With rising air, conditions are generally more favorable for tropical development. Where there are brown lines, the air is generally sinking & is often less conducive to tropical cyclones (though not impossible to have development).
The “Buresh Bottom Line”: Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Preparation Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.
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Federal Alliance for Safe Homes (FLASH) * here *.
REMEMBER WHEN A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE IS APPROACHING: Taping windows is *not* recommended & will not keep glass from breaking. Instead close curtains & blinds.
Realize the forecast cone (”cone of uncertainty”) is the average forecast error over a given time - out to 6 days - & *does not* indicate the width of the storm &/or where damage might occur.
The map below shows the *average* time for a tropical wave coming off Africa to travel west & northwest. Only about 1 in 5 tropical waves - on average - become a tropical cyclone of some sort (depression/storm/hurricane):
Water vapor loop (dark blue/yellow is dry mid & upper level air):
October Atlantic tropical cyclone origins:
Averages below based on climatology for the Atlantic Basin for October:
Wind shear (red - strong shear; green - low shear). Shear is typically strong to start the hurricane season:
Saharan dust spreads west each year from Africa driven by the prevailing winds (from east to west over the Atlantic). Dry air = yellow/orange/red/pink. Widespread dust is indicative of dry air that *can* interfere with the development of tropical cyclones. However, sometimes “wanna’ be” waves will just wait until they get to the other side of - or away from - the dust plume then try to develop if other conditions are favorable (we saw this with Beryl & Debby last year). It’s my personal opinion that there is way too much “hoopla” about the presence of Saharan dust & how it relates to tropical cyclones. In any case, the peak of Saharan dust typically is in June & July, & we are indeed seeing a large “blobs” of Saharan dust over the Central & Eastern Atlantic that’s thinning with westward extent but enough of it to make for hazy skies across the Caribbean & - at times - across parts of Florida.
2026 names..... “Josephine” is the next name on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random by the World Meteorological Organization... repeat every 6 years). Historic storms are retired [Florence & Michael in ’18... Dorian in ’19 (the last time this year’s list was used) ... Laura, Eta & Iota in ‘20 ... Ida in ‘21 ... Fiona & Ian in ‘22... no names were retired in ‘23 for the first time since 2014... Beryl, Helene & Milton in 2024 & Melissa in 2025). The WMO decided - beginning in 2021 - that the Greek alphabet will be no longer used & instead there will be a supplemental list of names if the first list is exhausted (has only happened three times - 2005, 2020 & 2021). The naming of tropical cyclones began on a consistent basis in 1953. More on the history of naming tropical cyclones * here *.
Hurricane season climatology:
East Atlantic:
Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear - typically the “enemy” of tropical systems:
Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):
Deep oceanic heat content over the Gulf, Caribbean & tropical Atlantic. Brighter colors = warmer temps.:
Sea surface temps.:
Sea surface temp. anomalies:
SE U.S. surface map:
Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:
Surface analysis of the Gulf:
Caribbean:
Atlantic Basin wave period forecast for 24, 48, 72 & 96 hours respectively:
East & Central Pacific:
This basin will remain the more active area in ‘26 due to the strong El Nino.
“Rachel”. Weakening but a turn more northward then northeast will bring rough seas & surf & dangerous rip currents to the Southern California coast along with gusty winds & tropical moisture that may lead to heavy rainfall & flooding extending east into Arizona & New Mexico & north to Utah, Colorado, Wyoming & Montana(!). Though expected to become a post-tropical low before reaching Southern California, tropical storm watches have been issued for some areas... & a tropical storm warning for parts of the Baja...
A Tropical Storm Warning: West coast of Baja California and Baja California Sur, from Punta Eugenia northward to the U.S./Mexico Border... East coast of Baja California, from Isla San Luis northward to Puerto Penasco
A Tropical Storm WATCH: Southern California coast from the U.S/Mexico Border northward to the San Diego/Orange County Line... East coast of Baja California, from Bahia De Los Angeles northward to Isla San Luis... Northwest Mexico from Puerto Libertad to Puerto Penasco.
Simon will impact the west coast of Mexico through the weekend into early next week...
A Hurricane WARNING: Punta San Telmo to El Roblito... Las Islas Marias
A Tropical Storm WATCH: East of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas
Central Pacific:
Hawaii satellite imagery:
Hawaii radar imagery:
Global tropical activity:
West Pacific:
“Nolo” now in the West Pacific & a typhoon (vs. hurricane):
“Koguma”: