El Niño should give northeast Florida some breathing room this hurricane season

As we exit May, it’s time to talk about the giant CAT-5 sized elephant in the room - Hurricane Season. The big brains over at NOAA just dropped their official forecast for 2026, and honestly, the initial outlook isn’t half bad for us here in Duval or the surrounding areas.

The experts are predicting a below-normal season in the Atlantic this year, largely thanks to a developing El Niño pattern that loves to tear up storms before they can even get rolling. But before you go celebrating and throwing out your emergency supplies, remember that a slower year doesn’t mean we are entirely out of the woods just yet - here are the top 5 facts we need to know about what the forecasters are seeing for 2026:

• NOAA is predicting a 55% chance of a below-normal season, meaning things should look a lot quieter than the wild rides we’ve seen in recent years.
• We are looking at a total forecast of 8 to 14 named storms, with 3 to 6 of those potentially strengthening into hurricanes.
• Out of those hurricanes, only 1 to 3 are expected to reach major status, which means hitting Category 3, 4, or 5 intensity.
• The main reason for the chill forecast is a strong El Niño pattern, which creates heavy upper-level winds that essentially act like a buzzkill for tropical development.
• Even with the lower numbers, local emergency officials stress that it only takes one bad storm hitting the coast to ruin your year, so keeping a solid game plan intact is still a must.

Action News Jax Chief Meteorologist Mike Buresh says it is understandable why NOAA and the NHC think this season will be less active.

History shows that the Atlantic Basin is indeed typically less active. Since 1950 - out of 23 El Nino’s - only two years - 2004 & 2018 - had more than one hurricane that hit the U.S. There were 6 “major” - Cat. 3+ hurricanes during El Nino years, 4 of which hit Florida directly. During 11 El Nino’s there were zero U.S. landfalls.

—  Buresh Blog/Mike Buresh

So while we can breathe a tiny sigh of relief that the numbers are working in our favor, don’t let your guard down completely. Keep a few cases of water in the garage, and don’t ignore the warnings when the storms start to form in the warm summer waters. We’ll be right there with you riding out the season together!