JACKSONVILLE, Fla. — The University of North Florida’s Public Opinion Research Lab poll found that 51 percent of voters were going to vote for Joe Biden compared to 45 percent of voters who said they would vote for President Donald Trump.
The online survey was comprised of 3,142 registered likely voters in Florida and took place between October 1 and October 4. 81 percent of the survey takers did vote in the 2018 primary election. 39 percent of the respondents were Republican, 38 percent were Democrat, and 22 percent were no party affiliation.
“This vast majority of responses from this survey were collected on the two days immediately following the debate and do not account for voter concerns following the President’s recent COVID-19 diagnosis,” Michael Binder, the director of the Public Opinion Research Lab, said. “This large six point gap between the candidates is likely attributed to the immediate aftermath of the debate. However, this is Florida, and I expect the election results to be very close once all the votes are counted.”
And the debate shows up as one of the many questions on the poll. While a vast majority of survey-takers (73 percent) said the debate was not influential in their decision on who to vote for in the upcoming election, with only 16 percent saying the debate was very influential.
Besides just asking who people will be voting for, the survey also touched on approval ratings for Florida leaders, the Supreme Court, the COVID-19 pandemic, immigration, and racial equality.
51 percent of likely voters stated they were going to vote for Joe Biden, 45 percent of likely voters said they would vote for President Donald Trump, and four percent of voters said they would vote for someone else, didn’t know who to vote for, or refused to answer the question.
Close to 90 people in the survey who voted for Hilary Clinton in 2016 said they would vote for Trump for the upcoming election. 1,390 people who voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016 said they will vote for Biden.
41 percent of Republican likely voters in the poll said that they somewhat agree that the results of the November presidential election will be fair and trustworthy. This is 10 percent lower than Democratic likely voters, as 51 percent said they strongly agree that the results of the election will be fair and trustworthy.
A majority of voters (52 percent) also said that the Supreme Court nomination should wait until the presidential election is over and after the next president is sworn in. 42 percent said they want to see the Senate confirm Judge Amy Barrett before the election on November 3.
When asked about approval ratings, 46 percent of likely voters in Florida said that they either somewhat or strongly approve of the President. 50 percent said they strongly disapprove of the President.
Public health impacts from the pandemic is still a primary concern for likely Florida voters, but it has gone down since a similar poll done in April. In April, 67 percent of voters were more concerned about public health impacts and 31 percent of respondents said they were more concerned about the economic impacts. As of last week, 57 percent of respondents said that are more concerned with public health impacts and 43 percent said economic impacts were more a concern.
The survey in April did have 360 more people respond to that question than this month’s poll.
However, a majority of likely voters did agree that the state is not doing enough to support the economy (59 percent) and that Florida is moving too quickly to ease social distancing restrictions (52 percent).
When it comes to face masks and people’s opinions about how they work to slow COVID-19, 82 percent of people said they either strongly or somewhat agreed that face masks work. 19 percent said they disagreed with that.
RACIAL TREATMENT BY POLICE
Since the April poll taken by UNF, racial issues have become a bigger issue for many voters - specifically how minorities are treated by police.
56 percent of respondents said that Black and white people do not receive equal treatment from the police and 53 percent of respondents (94 percent of Democrats) said that the death of Black people during encounters were signs of a broader problem of systemic racism. 46 percent of people (86 percent of Republicans) said that death of Black people during encounters are primarily isolated incidents.
53 percent of respondents also said that Hispanic and white people do not receive equal treatment from the police with 47 percent saying they did.
Besides the Presidential Election, there will be six constitutional amendments on the Florida ballot ranging from simple language change to raising the minimum wage.
Amendment 1 would change the language of the citizen requirement vote in Florida Elections. Survey-takers were told that the proposed amendment is not expected to result in any changes to the voter registration process in Florida, and will have no impact on state or local government costs or revenue. 78 percent of survey-takers said they would vote yes to the amendment. 18 percent would vote no.
Amendment 2 would raise the minimum wage to $10 an hour as of October 30, 2021. From then to 2026, the minimum wage would be increased by a dollar a year until it hits $15 per hour. Survey-takers told that this amendment is estimated to have a net negative impact on the state budget and that impact may result in higher taxes or a loss of government services in order to maintain a balanced state budget. 60 percent of likely voters said they would approve this amendment. 37 percent said they would not approve this amendment. 3 percent of survey-takers said they didn’t know or refused to answer the question.
Amendment 3 would allow all voters to vote in primary elections for State Legislature, Governor, and Cabinet. Survey-takers were told that this will result in additional local government costs to conduct elections in Florida, there will not be an impact to state costs or revenues. 58 percent said they would approve this amendment and 36 percent said they wouldn’t approve of it. 6 percent said they either didn’t know or refused.
Amendment 4 would require all proposed amendments or revisions to the state constitution to be approved by voters in two elections, instead of one in order to take affect. 41 percent of likely voters said they would approve this, while 52 percent of likely voters said they wouldn’t vote for this. 7 percent said they didn’t know or refused to answer.
Amendment 5 would increase the period of time by one year in where accrued Save-Our-Homes benefit may be transferred from a prior homestead to a new homestead. 67 percent of survey-takers said they would approve this. 26 percent said they wouldn’t and 7 percent said they didn’t know or refused to answer.
Amendment 6 would allow for the homestead property tax discount for veterans with permanent combat-related disabilities to be carried over to the surviving spouse if the veteran dies. 88 percent of survey-takers said they approved of the amendment. 8 percent said no and 4 percents didn’t know or refused.
Cox Media Group