Voter turnout lags in Duval County elections

Jacksonville, FL — With early voting done and Election Day tomorrow, about 12.5% of registered Duval County voters have cast a ballot.

That's less than the Duval Supervisor of Elections Office had been hoping to see- given that Mayor, Sheriff, City Council, and other races are on the ballot- but it's not necessarily surprising, according to WOKV's Political Analyst.

“Lacking the enthusiasm of one of the major parties not having a candidate on the top of the ticket hurts them [local Democrats], hurts turnout overall,” says University of North Florida Associate Professor of Political Science Dr. Michael Binder.

FULL COVERAGE: WOKV's Duval County Voter Guide

The Jacksonville Mayor’s race has three Republican candidates- including the incumbent Mayor- one NPA, and two write-ins, but no Democrats. Binder says Democrats traditionally outperform Republicans in early voting turnout in Duval County, but the Supervisor of Elections Office confirms the GOP has a nearly 3% edge among early voting and absentee ballots that have been verified so far. Binder says that gap shows it was a “blunder” to not run a local Democrat in the race.

“For a major party not to run a candidate for Mayor in a county that voted multiple points in favor of the Democratic Gubernatorial candidate just three months ago is mind-boggling to me,” he says.

In these elections, if a candidate is able to secure 50% + 1 of the votes, he or she is elected outright Tuesday. If no candidate in a race gets that majority, the top two vote-getters face a runoff in May. Binder says the impact of the apparently lower Democrat turnout could have an impact down-ballot, where there are a few two-candidate City Council races involving a Democrat and Republican facing each other.

It’s likely that several races will get to May, because of the number of candidates involved, including some District and At-Large Council races. Binder says the likely District races are heavily Democrat, which could bolster any Democratic candidate in an At-Large race- if the Mayor’s race is settled on Tuesday. If the Mayor’s race moves to May, Binder expects there would continue to be a good GOP turnout, but if there is no Mayor’s race, Binder says it’s unlikely that Republicans would show up strong in May, because they would likely only be voting for one or two At-Large races.

WHAT TO KNOW: Fast facts, links for the Duval County elections

For Tuesday’s races, the Supervisor of Elections Office had initially projected voter turnout to be in the 30% range, but now they’re hoping for 24-25%. Binder says it may not even reach that. Chief Elections Officer Robert Phillips tells WOKV they saw early voting numbers climbing last week and, as traditionally happens, the strongest showing was the final day yesterday.

Phillips says, while they would have hoped to have higher turnout, he believes this will mean no significant delays at the polls on Election Day Tuesday.

“All the equipment has been delivered, all the machines have been tested. We are just ready for 7AM tomorrow,” Phillips says.

He expects precincts to be busiest around opening time at 7AM and in the couple of hours leading up to closing at 7PM.

Unlike early voting, remember that you have to go to the precinct assigned to you based on where you live if you're voting on Election Day. You can find that precinct location on your sample ballot or through the Supervisor of Elections website. On Election Day, make sure you bring a photo ID with you, in order to vote.