Buresh Blog: Heat is On!...El Nino Update...NOAA hurricane season forecast update...Hawaii wildfire

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. — Updated every day during the hurricane season: “Talking the Tropics With Mike”.

It’s been a hot July & early August in Jacksonville. Now - it’s been hotter, but the temps. have been notable with July at JIA the hottest since the thermometer has been at the Int’l. Airport - since 1956 - & the 4th hottest since 1871 (the period of weather record for Jacksonville).

The El Nino - a warming of the equatorial Pacific continues & is strengthening in what looks to be a moderate to strong El Nino following 3 straight La Nina’s (cooling of the equatorial Pacific):

El Nino is known for helping to cause fewer Atlantic hurricanes, more Pacific hurricanes... a wet/stormy winter from California east along the Gulf Coast including Jacksonville/NE Fl./SE Ga... & generally milder winters at northern latitudes.

Most of the forecast models peak the El Nino during the Northern Hemisphere’s late fall into winter:

NOAA has issued their updated seasonal hurricane forecast & increased the numbers despite the ongoing & increasing El Nino. Most of the reasoning is based on very warm ocean temps. Ultimately the season will, of course, be remembered - or not - for any storms that make landfall & their strength upon landfall. The First Alert Hurricane Center * here *.

Terrible wildfires in Hawaii - centered on Maui. More * here * & * here * on Action News Jax. A combination of very strong winds & dry conditions conspired to make for a literal death trap on the island. Somewhat ironically - but probably not simply a coincidence- a similar fire occurred in Maui in the late 1800′s during a strong El Nino. Some facts regarding the wildfire: * much of Hawaii is typically dry this time of year. For Kahului to the west of Maui on the same island, rainfall for June averages 0.12″... July: 0.53″ & the first half of Aug.: 0.17″. So it’s typically dry this time of year. * strong trade winds are a trade mark of Hawaii’s summer with gusts frequently above 20-30 mph & sometimes - as was the case in last week’s horrific wildfire - up to 60, even 70 mph. A similar fire & set-up occurred in the late 1800′s.

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