Buresh Blog: La Nina to El Nino?... Billion Dollar Disasters... St. Johns River New Website

Jacksonville, Fl. — The globe is in the midst of a rare 3rd consecutive year with a La Nina - a cooling of the equatorial Pacific. Long range forecasts are now pointing the *possibility* of a transition to an El Nino (warming of the equatorial Pacific) later this year. Such a change would be of little surprise to me given the tendency of Mother Nature to always try to balance the weather - where “it” goes up, “it” must go down. For right now - & realize forecast models are not particularly good at predicting a La Nina or El Nino in the longer range - the forecast strongly suggests a neutral (not El Nino or La Nina) state by spring continuing into summer before a possible transition to El Nino by late summer into fall. One of the most important impacts for Jacksonville/NE Fl./ SE Ga. would be the potential for fewer hurricanes. El Nino seasons are typically dominated higher shear across the Atlantic which *can* cut down on the number (not necessarily intensity) of tropical storms & hurricanes. So time will tell, & I’ll continue to monitor & update.

NOAA has summarized the U.S. 2022 billion dollar weather disasters. Hurricanes Ian, Nicole & Fiona were the costliest disasters. According to NOAA:

“Damages from these disasters totaled approximately $165.0 billion for all 18 events. This surpasses 2021 ($155.3 billion, inflation adjusted) in total costs, which makes 2022 the third most costly year on record, only behind 2017 and 2005; all inflation adjusted to 2022 dollars).

Hurricane Ian was the most costly event of 2022 at $112.9 billion, and ranks as the third most costly hurricane on record (since 1980) for the U.S., behind Hurricane Katrina (2005) and Hurricane Harvey (2017).

Over the last seven years (2016-2022), 122 separate billion-dollar disasters have killed at least 5,000 people, with a total cost of more than $1 trillion in damages. Five of the last six years (2017-2022, with 2019 being the exception) have each had a price tag of at least $100 billion.”

World ‘22 highlights:

The St. Johns Riverkeeper has announced the launch of a new website “Explore the St. Johns River”. From the site: “The St. Johns River is the longest river in Florida, flowing 310 miles north from its headwaters at Blue Cypress Lake in Indian River County to its mouth where it empties into the Atlantic Ocean in Duval County. The St. Johns River watershed covers an area of nearly 9,000 square miles that are waiting to be explored!” You’ll find info. from restaurants to hiking trails to boat tours to camping & more! Click * here *.

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