Jacksonville, Fl. — The “Buresh Bottom Line”: Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.
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REMEMBER WHEN A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE IS APPROACHING: Taping windows is *NOT* helpful & will not keep glass from breaking.
Realize the forecast cone (”cone of uncertainty”) is the average forecast error over a given time - out to 5 days - & *does not* indicate the width of the storm &/or damage that might occur.
** No tropical systems will directly impact Jacksonville/NE Fl./SE Ga. through the weekend into next week.... **
The peak of the Atlantic hurricane season is here!
With a quiet end to the weekend for the Atlantic on Sept. 11th, how ‘bout a little “look back”? The surface weather map below is from Sept. 10th, 2001 & shows a low over the Southeast Gulf that would become a tropical depression on the 11th & Gabrielle 2 days later before crossing Florida dumping heavy rain on Jacksonville & much of Florida before moving over the Western Atlantic & becoming a hurricane. The cold front passed through NYC & off the eastern seaboard on the night of the 10th paving the way for the clear skies & the infamous terrorist attacks the next day.
On Sept. 11, 1900 - a fascinating weather map shows the remnant low pressure of the infamous “Great Galveston Hurricane”. As much as 4″ of rain poured on the Midwest.
The last NHC advisory on Earl was issued Sat. There will still be some easterly swell rolling up on U.S. east coast beaches through Monday.
Meanwhile... there are several tropical waves over the E. Atlantic that - at this time - are being hammered by mid & upper level shear & - at times - some dry air. There are some indications by long range forecast models of possible development near the Caribbean or Southeast U.S. next week/weekend as well as a - initially - nontropical low developing over the far Western Atlantic east of the Carolina’s.
Disorganized storminess continues over the Eastern Gulf of Mexico as an upper level trough exits to the northeast. No surface development is indicated despite persistent clusters of t’storms.
South Florida Water Management District Fl. radar imagery:
September origins:
Averages below based on climatology for the Atlantic Basin through September. This season so far is well below avg.:
Wind shear:
Saharan dust spreads west each year from Africa by the prevailing winds (from east to west over the Atlantic). Dry air - yellow/orange/red/pink. Widespread dust is indicative of dry air that can impede the development of tropical cyclones. However, sometimes “wanna’ be” waves will just wait until they get to the other side of - or away from - the plume then try to develop if other conditions are favorable. In my personal opinion, way too much is made about the presence of Saharan dust & how it relates to tropical cyclones. In any case, we’ve had several large dust plumes spread west to the Caribbean & Gulf with the peak of Saharan dust typically in June & July.
2022 names..... “Fiona” is the next name on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random by the World Meteorological Organization... repeat every 6 years). Historic storms are retired [Florence & Michael in ’18... Dorian in ’19 & Laura, Eta & Iota in ‘20 & Ida in ‘21]). In fact, this year’s list of names is rather infamous with “Charley”, “Frances”, “Jeanne” & “Ivan” retired from the ‘04 list (all hit Fl.) & “Matthew” was retired in 2016. The WMO decided - beginning last year - that the Greek alphabet will be no longer used & instead there will be a supplemental list of names if the first list is exhausted (has only happened three times - 2005, 2020 & 2021). The naming of tropical cyclones began on a consistent basis in 1953. More on the history of naming tropical cyclones * here *.
East Atlantic:
Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear:
Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):
Deep oceanic heat content over the Gulf, Caribbean & deep tropical Atlantic:
Sea surface temp. anomalies:
SE U.S. surface map:
Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:
Surface analysis of the Gulf:
Caribbean:
GFS wave forecast at 48 & 72 hours (2 & 3 days):
Atlantic Basin wave period forecast for 24, 48 & 72 hours respectively:
Updated Atlantic seasonal forecast from early Aug. - NOAA & CSU:
The East Pacific:
West Pacific:
Global tropical activity:
“Muifa” has formed over the W. Pacific which may have some impacts on some of the distant Southern Japanese islands late in the weekend while the storm crawls toward the northwest.
Another soon to be typhoon will stay east of Japan:
Cox Media Group
