Jacksonville, Fl. — The “Buresh Bottom Line”: Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.
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REMEMBER WHEN A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE IS APPROACHING: Taping windows is *NOT* helpful & will not keep glass from breaking.
Realize the forecast cone (”cone of uncertainty”) is the average forecast error over a given time - out to 5 days - & *does not* indicate the width of the storm &/or damage that might occur.
Dr. Phil Klotzbach, CSU has issued his July update on the Atlantic seasonal forecast - see video below - & has increased the numbers ever so slightly. If accurate, the next few months would be extremely active (the forecast does take into account the 3 storms that have occurred). Realize the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season is not until mid August through early Oct. - a long ways to go in other words. Bottom line: always be prepared.
* There are no current areas of concern across the Atlantic.
It still looks like a front will stall & stretch out across the Northwest Atlantic from roughly the Carolina’s northeastward for hundreds of miles through next week. We’ll watch that feature for possible surface low pressure development that could try to become tropical. Current indications are that any possible surface low would have a tendency to move northeast along the front away from the U.S.
* ‘94-L’ (Potential Tropical Cyclone #2) which came off the coast of Africa 2 weeks ago Wed. finally formed into tropical storm “Bonnie” a week ago Fri. morning & made landfall near the Nicaragua/Costa Rica border Fri. night as a formidable tropical storm with the tropical cyclone becoming well developed & strengthening while moving ashore. Bonnie made it to the East Pacific early Sat. & rather quickly became a hurricane while veering more northwest staying well west & southwest of Mexico. Bonnie is finally “spinning down” & should dissipate by Sunday/Monday as the storm approaches the Central Pacific.
Wind shear:
The location of development of tropical systems in July since 1851 generally favors the NW Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico & far Western Atlantic:
Saharan dust is spread west each year from Africa by the prevailing winds (from east to west over the Atlantic). Dry air - yellow/orange/red/pink. Widespread dust is indicative of dry air that can impede the development of tropical cyclones. However, sometimes “wanna’ be” waves will just wait until they get to the other side of - or away from - the plume then try to develop if other conditions are favorable. In my personal opinion, way too much is made about the presence of Saharan dust & how it relates to tropical cyclones. In any case, we’ve had several large dust plumes spread west to the Caribbean & Gulf with the peak of Saharan dust typically in June & July.
2022 names..... “Danielle” is the next name on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random by the World Meteorological Organization... repeat every 6 years). Historic storms are retired [Florence & Michael in ’18... Dorian in ’19 & Laura, Eta & Iota in ‘20 & Ida in ‘21]). In fact, this year’s list of names is rather infamous with “Charley”, “Frances”, “Jeanne” & “Ivan” retired from the ‘04 list (all hit Fl.) & “Matthew” was retired in 2016. The WMO decided - beginning last year - that the Greek alphabet will be no longer used & instead there will be a supplemental list of names if the first list is exhausted (has only happened three times - 2005, 2020 & 2021). The naming of tropical cyclones began on a consistent basis in 1953. More on the history of naming tropical cyclones * here *.
East Atlantic:
Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear:
Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):
Deep oceanic heat content over the Gulf, Caribbean & deep tropical Atlantic:
Sea surface temp. anomalies:
SE U.S. surface map:
Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:
Surface analysis of the Gulf:
Caribbean:
GFS wave forecast at 48 & 72 hours (2 & 3 days):
Atlantic Basin wave period forecast for 24, 48 & 72 hours respectively:
The East Pacific:
West Pacific IR satellite:
Global tropical activity:
Cox Media Group
