Buresh Blog: The late season November nemesis that was Nicole

Jacksonville, FL — “Talking the Tropics With Mike” is updated every day through the end of the Atlantic hurricane season on Nov. 30th.

The 2022 Atlantic hurricane season was off to a slow start with no significant threats to the U.S. through Aug. But Sept., Oct. & Nov. have more than made up for it with 11 named storms over the 3 month period.

The latest storm - Nicole - developed from an upper level low over the Central Atlantic that helped develop a non-tropical then subtropical low several hundred miles north of Puerto Rico & well to the east of the Bahamas. In the end, Nicole’s hit on Florida’s east coast was the latest on record for a hurricane landfall & the 2nd latest U.S. hurricane landfall on record. Only Cat. 2 Kate on Nov. 22nd, 1985 was later (Fl. Panhandle near Mexico Beach). For Jacksonville/NE Fl. & SE Ga., Nicole was one of the latest strong tropical cyclones to ever heavily impact the local area.

On Fri., Nov. 3rd I sent the following memo to our First Alert weather team & station management:

A major storm will hit the local area next week. There are still plenty of question marks when it comes to exact details, but in a general sense – wind & rain – there will be widespread impacts.

Stay tuned for updates…

• Breezy onshore winds this weekend will help “set the table” for next week
• Rough seas & surf & dangerous rip currents will already occur through the weekend
• Already “softened” beaches (Ian & previous nor’easters) will be ripe for the “picking” with such a long stretch of strong, onshore flow/winds
• Conditions will worsen Mon. & likely be at there peak Tue./Wed./Thu., possibly into Fri.
• Winds gusts 30-40+ mph at the beaches… 15-25+ mph inland
• Rough seas & surf w/ very dangerous water conditions/rip currents. Surf will be nearing 10 feet & even greater than 10 feet by Tue. through much of the rest of the week
• Sea water will likely breach some of the dunes & probably many of the dunes that were damaged by Ian
• Rainfall will be heavy at times & will increase each day through next week
• The storm system responsible – low pressure – may or may not become “Nicole” but either way the impacts will be virtually the same.
• If the storm goes more toward south Florida, it’s *possible* it could be stronger, *maybe* even hurricane strength BUT far from certain
• Bottom line: be prepared for rough weather & a busy weather week. The one thing that impacts everyone over the next week will be….. weather.
• #FirstAlertWx…. “Talking the Tropics With Mike”

In “Talking the Tropics With Mike” the week of Oct. 30th, I wrote about the “high likelihood of tropical development over the Caribbean &/or SW Atlantic within the next 1-2 weeks”. Halloween, Mon. Oct. 31st: “The Caribbean is a typical “hot bed” for late season development & will be an area that needs to closely watched for additional development over the next 1-2 weeks or so. In fact, most global models shows low pressure trying to develop over the Caribbean &/or SW Atlantic this coming weekend into the following week.” The next day on Tue., Nov. 1: “The Caribbean is a typical “hot bed” for late season development & will be an area that needs to closely watched for additional development over the next 1-2 weeks or so. In fact, most global models shows low pressure trying to develop over the Caribbean &/or SW Atlantic - perhaps not far from Florida - by next week”.

Until Sun., Nov. 6th, the global forecast models had been at great odds as to whether or not a tropical system would develop not to mention location & where a storm might go. While the GFS forecast models were pretty consistent/insistent the previous week with development, it had wide swings in location & intensity. The European model generally showed only very weak low pressure or nothing at all. But then on Nov. 6th - 4 days before the Fl. landfall, most of the global models finally jumped “onboard” with tropical development over the SW Atlantic emanating from an upper level (500mb, ~ 30,000 feet) low & trough in the same general area.

The graph below from Brian Hong-An Tang, Associate Professor University at Albany - SUNY Dept. Atmospheric & Environmental Sciences shows the errors in kilometers from 24 through 96 hours. It should be noted there were several models not initializing Nicole at 96 hours (4 days). Unfortunately there is no data - in this particular sample - that includes the European model. In general... the model errors at 72 hours & less were not terribly bad with the model errors pretty tightly clustered & - in general - respectable. A list of the model abbreviations (key) * here *.

Once on to the potential development, forecast models fairly quickly became pretty locked in on general movement, strength & timing. But at 4+ days out, there were several models - the European included - that failed to show much development of the low pressure area that eventually became “Nicole”. Ultimately, the key to the track forecast was a narrow upper level ridge building north of Nicole that would push the tropical cyclone west, even a little southwest before an approaching upper level trough of low pressure helped create an alleyway from Fl. through the Appalachians which would be the path of least resistance that Nicole needed to turn northwest then north then N/NE.

500mb (~30,000 feet) forecast for Nov., 9 followed by Nov. 11th:

Initially - for about 24 hours or so - Nicole was subtropical technically lacking a pure warm core that had frontal features. While scientifically correct, I felt the distinction caused confusion for our viewers & listeners & muddled our messaging (similar to “post-tropical storm Sandy in the Northeast in 2012). I implored our newsroom to only use the name of the storm - ‘Nicole’ - & to not get caught up in semantics with a storm I fully expected to become tropical & that would be very damaging for especially our coast & St. Johns River. In other words, I wanted folks to understand Nicole would be a significant late season storm. Always remember: there’s no such thing as “just a” - any & all storms can be dangerous & have nuances that can be “surprising” & dangerous. So I worked tirelessly to communicate the threats while not going overboard with “the sky is falling”. That’s a delicate balance & communication especially if your home has a tree on it or is flooded. Then Nicole does out to be severe for your exact location.

Another serious aspect of the forecast & communicating the threats was the good ol’ forecast cone. Now 20 years in the making, the pros are solid but the cons are getting in the way. Case & point: once the cone narrows - which demonstrates a high confidence forecast - some thought you were outside of the “impact zone” if you were no longer in the cone. So following the lead of a NHC graphic (good idea!), the First Alert Weather Team consistently showed the cone while at the same time showing the wind wind field of tropical storm force winds. I also had a graphic created showing Ian from just 6 weeks earlier vs. Nicole impacts. This proved to work well for many viewers/listeners.

The narrow forecast cone below vs. the wind field in the 2nd image:

“Spot on” First Alert Forecast Sunday, Nov. 6th:

Wed.-Thu., Nov. 9-10 rainfall:

First Alert Doppler HD as the eye of Nicole approaches the coast at 1AM EST:

Front St., Fernandina Beach:

Downtown Jacksonville St. Johns River flooding which fell about a foot short of Irma’s crest in 2017...

Tree on a home on Jacksonville’s Northside:

Crescent Beach severe erosion:

Action News Jax Robert Grant reporting on the severe Southern St. Johns Co. beach erosion:

Action News Jax Kennedy Dendy on FEMA & storm recovery:

The lighter side of Nicole as man’s best friend takes a “bath”:

First Alert Weather Team “at attention” :) ..... L-R: Corey Simma, Garrett Bedenbaugh, “Chief”, Trevor Gibbs...

Making sure the office studio light is in working order:

On the air live w/ Rich Jones, 104.5 WOKV - crucial partnership - radio & t.v....

The Jacksonville N.W.S. preliminary Nicole summary/survey:

POST TROPICAL CYCLONE REPORT...HURRICANE NICOLE...UPDATED

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL

919 PM EST THU NOV 17 2022

NOTE: THE DATA SHOWN HERE ARE PRELIMINARY....AND SUBJECT TO UPDATES AND CORRECTIONS AS APPROPRIATE.

THIS REPORT INCLUDES EVENTS OCCURRING WHEN WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS WERE IN EFFECT...OR WHEN SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ASSOCIATED WITH NICOLE

OR ITS REMNANTS WAS AFFECTING THE AREA. COUNTIES INCLUDED...ALACHUA...BAKER...BRADFORD...CAMDEN...CLAY... COLUMBIA...DUVAL...FLAGLER...GILCHRIST...GLYNN...MARION...NASSAU...PUTNAM...ST JOHNS...SUWANNEE...UNION

A. LOWEST SEA LEVEL PRESSURE/MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AND PEAK GUSTS

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METAR OBSERVATIONS...

NOTE: ANEMOMETER HEIGHT IS 10 METERS AND WIND AVERAGING IS 2 MINUTES

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LOCATION ID MIN DATE/ MAX DATE/ PEAK DATE/

LAT LON PRES TIME SUST TIME GUST TIME

DEG DECIMAL (MB) (UTC) (KT) (UTC) (KT) (UTC)

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KGNV-GAINESVILLE REGIONAL AIRPORT FL

29.68 -82.27 995.0 10/1853 090/027 10/1741 050/054 10/1608

KSGJ-SAINT AUGUSTINE AIRPORT FL

29.97 -81.33 1001.2 10/1356 070/044 10/1310 060/053 10/1303

KNRB-MAYPORT NAVAL STATION FL

30.39 -81.42 1001.4 10/1952 080/039 10/1511 080/053 10/1509

KJAX-JACKSONVILLE INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT FL

30.49 -81.69 1000.6 10/1956 060/034 10/1425 040/052 10/1422

KCRG-CRAIG MUNICIPAL AIRPORT FL

30.33 -81.52 1000.9 10/1953 080/028 10/1455 070/050 10/1503

KNIP-JACKSONVILLE NAS FL

30.24 -81.68 999.5 10/1853 060/030 10/1445 120/046 10/1916

KSSI-ST. SIMONS/MALCOLM MCKINNON AIRPORT GA

31.15 -81.38 1003.9 10/2153 080/028 10/1525 080/046 10/1524

K28J-PALATKA FL

29.66 -81.69 998.3 10/1835 100/031 10/1535 100/044 10/1535

KFHB-FERNANDINA BEACH FL

30.61 -81.45 1002.35 10/2035 080/033 10/1515 080/043 10/1415

KFIN-BUNNELL FL

29.47 -81.20 998.9 10/1215 050/029 10/1035 070/041 10/1135

KJAX-JACKSONVILLE INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT FL

30.49 -81.69 999.3 10/1950 080/024 10/1550 060/040 10/1410

KAMG-BACON COUNTY AIRPORT GA

31.54 -82.50 1001.6 10/2253 120/017 10/2355 100/037 11/0122

KOCF-OCALA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT FL

29.18 -82.22 992.0 10/1751 130/025 10/1820 130/036 10/1817

KBQK-BRUNSWICK/GLYNCO AIPORT GA

31.15 -81.47 1004.0 10/2215 090/022 10/2055 090/036 10/2055

K24J-LIVE OAK FL

30.30 -83.02 995.2 10/2215 350/024 10/1615 350/035 10/1615

KAYS-WAYCROSS GA

31.25 -82.40 1000.8 10/2215 120/020 10/2155 050/035 10/1715

REMARKS: FLAGLER COUNTY AWOS DATA WAS NOT AVAILABLE FROM NOV 10

1235Z TO NOV 11 0255Z.

NON-METAR OBSERVATIONS...

NOTE: ANEMOMETER HEIGHT IN METERS AND WIND AVERAGING PERIOD IN

MINUTES INDICATED UNDER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND IF KNOWN

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LOCATION ID MIN DATE/ MAX DATE/ PEAK DATE/

LAT LON PRES TIME SUST TIME GUST TIME

DEG DECIMAL (MB) (UTC) (KT) (UTC) (KT) (UTC)

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1423W-WEATHERSTEM MARINELAND FL

29.67 -81.21 998.5 10/1230 090/050 10/1120 090/063 10/1120

2.7

XHUP-HUGUENOT PARK

30.42 -81.41 1002 10/1946 060/050 10/1456 060/063 10/1456

12.2

1426W-WEATHERSTEM ST JOHNS COUNTY FL

29.99 -81.32 070/052 10/1330 090/062 10/1340

3.9

XJAK-BUCK ISLAND

30.40 -81.47 1000 10/1950 070/039 10/1515 070/054 10/1515

10.4

XHSE-WEATHERFLOW CRESCENT BEACH SUMMERHOUSE

29.72 -81.23 1000 10/1820 350/031 10/2015 350/050 10/1955

5.2

XJEK-JEKYLL ISLAND GA

31.05 -81.41 9999 060/032 10/1514 060/043 10/1524

10.4

REMARKS: DATA PROVIDED BY WEATHERFLOW-TEMPEST NETWORK AND

WEATHERSTEM.

B. MARINE OBSERVATIONS...

NOTE: ANEMOMETER HEIGHT IN METERS AND WIND AVERAGING PERIOD IN

MINUTES INDICATED UNDER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND IF KNOWN

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LOCATION ID MIN DATE/ MAX DATE/ PEAK DATE/

LAT LON PRES TIME SUST TIME GUST TIME

DEG DECIMAL (MB) (UTC) (KT) (UTC) (KT) (UTC)

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SAUF1-CMAN STATION SAINT AUGUSTINE FL

29.86 -81.26 1000.8 10/1900 040/045 10/1210 060/061 10/1303

8.8

GTXF1-NERR STATION GUANA TOLOMAO MATANZAS FL

29.66 -81.22 1001.0 10/2000 130/022 10/1815

4.4

MYPF1-NOS STATION MAYPORT FL

30.40 -81.43 1001.9 10/1954 070/037 10/1454 070/047 10/1500

11.2

FRDF1-FERNANDINA BCH, FL NOS

30.67 -81.47 1002.4 10/2042 010/023 10/1054 010/036 10/0906

8.8

BKBF1-I295 BUCKMAN BRIDGE

30.19 -81.69 999.6 10/1836 100/036 10/1830 050/046 10/1330

11.1

NFDF1-NAVY FUEL DEPOT, ST JOHNS RV, FL NOS

30.40 -81.63 1000.8 10/2006 050/032 10/1430 050/042 10/1430

REMARKS: THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT (HS) AT BUOY 41117 REACHED 5.7

METERS OR 18.7 FEET, WITH A PEAK WAVE (HMAX) OF 9.9 METERS OR 32.5

FEET ON 11/10 AROUND 1330 UTC. BUOY 41112 MEASURED SIGNIFICANT WAVE

HEIGHT (HS) TO 4.5 METERS OR 14.7 FEET, WITH PEAK WAVE (HMAX) OF 8.4

METERS OR 27.5 FEET ON 11/10 AROUND 1430 UTC. DATA PROVIDED BY

SCRIPPS INSTITUTION OF OCEANOGRAPHY.

C. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL FROM 0000 UTC NOV 10 UNTIL 0000 UTC NOV 12

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CITY/TOWN COUNTY ID RAINFALL

LAT LON (IN)

DEG DECIMAL

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1 NE FRUIT COVE ST JOHNS FW6950 4.14

30.11 -81.61

1 ENE MANDARIN DUVAL FW6993 4.12

30.16 -81.63

4 NE BAKERSVILLE ST JOHNS FW8076 3.67

29.94 -81.44

2 ESE SAN MATEO PUTNAM FL-PT-24 3.33

29.59 -81.55

5 NW INTERLACHEN PUTNAM DW9112 3.31

29.67 -81.95

5 NW SALT SPRINGS MARION LGRF1 3.25

29.40 -81.81

5 NW GAINESVILLE ALACHUA EW3527 3.22

29.73 -82.42

1 NW ORANGE PARK CLAY AW004 3.20

30.18 -81.73

3 NW UNIVERSITY OF FLORI ALACHUA DW8556 3.13

29.67 -82.39

NAS JACKSONVILLE DUVAL KNIP 2.94

30.22 -81.67

CRAIG AIRFIELD DUVAL KCRG 2.67

30.33 -81.52

GAINESVILLE ALACHUA KGNV 2.55

29.70 -82.28

ST AUGUSTINE ST JOHNS KSGJ 2.42

29.97 -813167.00

JACKSONVILLE INT AIRPORT DUVAL KJAX 2.17

30.50 -81.68

D. INLAND FLOODING...

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E. MAXIMUM OBSERVED WATER LEVEL (WL)...

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ID CITY/TOWN COUNTY STATE WL DATUM DATE/ SOURCE

OR LOCATION (FT) TIME

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PELF1 PELLICER CREEK ST JOHNS FL 3.82 MHHW 10/1700 USGS

29.6692 -81.2597

BKBF1 ST JOHNS RIVER, DUVAL FL 3.82 MHHW 10/1906 NOS

30.1924 -81.6889

FRDF1 FERNANDINA BEAC NASSAU FL 3.81 MHHW 10/1554 NOS

30.6717 -81.4650

JAKF1 CEDAR RIVER AT DUVAL FL 3.73 MHHW 10/1900 USGS

30.2819 -81.7406

TRJF1 TROUT RIVER AT DUVAL FL 3.72 MHHW 10/1715 USGS

30.4172 -81.6967

BRNG1 ST SIMONS ISLAN GLYNN GA 3.67 MHHW 10/1500 USGS

31.1333 -81.3967

MYPF1 ST JOHNS RIVER DUVAL FL 3.57 MHHW 10/1506 NOS

30.3917 -81.4300

BUCF1 ST JOHNS RIVER DUVAL FL 3.82 MHHW 10/1906 NOS

30.1847 -81.6844

DMSF1 ST JOHNS RIVER DUVAL FL 3.50 MHHW 10/1612 NOS

30.3867 -81.5583

GCEF1 ST JOHNS RIVER ST JOHNS FL 3.52 MHHW 10/2000 USGS

30.0058 -81.6150

CSAG1 SEA CAMP DOCK O CAMDEN GA 3.47 MHHW 10/1600 USGS

30.7644 -81.4714

BRJF1 BROWARD RIVER B DUVAL FL 3.46 MHHW 10/1800 NOS

30.4433 -81.6683

DPBF1 ST JOHNS RIVER DUVAL FL 3.45 MHHW 10/1630 USGS

30.3858 -81.5583

SJLF1 ST JOHNS RIVER DUVAL FL 3.36 MHHW 10/1800 USGS

30.3222 -81.6656

CCJF1 CLAPBOARD CREEK DUVAL FL 3.34 MHHW 10/1630 USGS

30.4483 -81.5183

MSBF1 ST JOHNS RIVER DUVAL FL 3.29 MHHW 10/1806 NOS

30.3200 -81.6583

SPUF1 DEEP CREEK AT S ST JOHNS FL 3.15 MHHW 10/0230 USGS

29.7294 -81.4869

SRPF1 ST JOHNS RIVER ST JOHNS FL 3.11 MHHW 10/2115 USGS

29.8000 -81.5500

DNSF1 DUNNS CREEK NEA PUTNAM FL 3.10 MHHW 10/1315 USGS

29.5775 -81.6264

DCDF1 DUNN CREEK AT D DUVAL FL 3.04 MHHW 10/1730 USGS

30.4550 -81.5969

PALF1 ST JOHNS RIVER PUTNAM FL 2.94 MHHW 10/2345 USGS

29.5961 -81.6833

JULF1 JULINGTON CREEK DUVAL FL 2.91 MHHW 10/2130 USGS

30.1433 -81.5558

PCUF1 POTTSBURG CREEK DUVAL FL 2.79 MHHW 10/1745 USGS

30.2869 -81.5700

SRWG1 SATILLA RIVER A CAMDEN GA 1.72 MHHW 10/1745 USGS

30.9744 -81.7258

REMARKS:

F. TORNADOES...

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(DIST)CITY/TOWN COUNTY DATE/ EF SCALE

LAT LON (DEG DECIMAL) TIME(UTC) (IF KNOWN)

DESCRIPTION

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G. STORM IMPACTS BY COUNTY...

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COUNTY DEATHS INJURIES EVACUATIONS

DESCRIPTION

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FLAGLER

STRONG TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND STORM SURGE AFFECTED FLAGLER

COUNTY AND LED TO SUBSTANTIAL PROPERTY DAMAGE ACROSS THE COUNTY.

MAJOR, DESTRUCTIVE BEACH EROSION AND STORM SURGE IMPACTED THE COAST

WITH THE PEAK OF IMPACTS THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 10TH.

SECTIONS OF A1A WHERE UNDERMINED AND COLLAPSED DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE

BEACH EROSION WITH NUMEROUS BEACH ACCESS BOARDWALKS AND STAIRS

DEMOLISHED AND WASHED AWAY IN FLAGLER BEACH ALONG A1A SOUTH INTO THE

OCEAN PALM GOLF CLUB AREA. THERE WAS STORM SURGE FLOODING AT WHITNEY

LABS IN MARINELAND. STRONG TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IMPACTED THE

COUNTY. PRELIMINARY DAMAGE ESTIMATES FOR THE ENTIRE COUNTY’S

CUMULATIVE IMPACT WAS 23.7 MILLION DOLLARS WITH 299 STRUCTURES

DAMAGED. ON WEDNESDAY NOV. 9TH AT 9:10 AM, THE PUBLIC POSTED ON

SOCIAL MEDIA THAT THE END OF THE FLAGLER BEACH PIER FURTHER

COLLAPSED FROM HIGH SURF. THE STRUCTURE WAS ALREADY WEAKENED FROM

HURRICANE IAN. AT 10:26 AM, FLAGLER COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT

(EMA) REPORTED THAT STATE ROAD A1A WAS CLOSED SOUTH OF THE FLAGLER

BEACH PIER FROM SOUTH 7TH STREET TO SOUTH 16TH STREET DUE TO TIDAL

OVER-WASH. AT 10:28 AM, FLAGLER EMA REPORTED THAT STATE ROAD A1A WAS

CLOSED NEAR MARINELAND. AT 12:25 PM, FLAGLER EMA REPORTED THAT THEY

RECEIVED MULTIPLE REPORTS OF WATER OVER THE SEA WALLS IN PALM COAST

AND LONG CREEK WAS OVER ITS BANKS. AT 12:40 PM, A MESONET STATION IN

MARINELAND MEASURED A WIND GUST OF 52 MPH. ON THURSDAY NOV. 10TH AT

4:06 AM, FLAGLER EMA REPORTED SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS

OF 39 MPH WITH A WIND GUST OF 55 MPH IN MARINELAND. AT 4:37 AM, PEAK

WIND GUSTS IN MARINELAND WERE UP TO 57 MPH AND GUSTS OF 55 MPH

CONTINUED THROUGH 5 AM. AT 5:20 AM, THE MARINELAND MESONET SITE

MEASURED SUSTAINED 49 MPH WINDS FROM THE EAST. BY 5:35 AM, A MESONET

STATION IN FLAGLER BEACH MEASURED SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE

WINDS OF 39 MPH FROM THE EAST WITH GUSTS TO 59 MPH. AT 5:50 AM, A

MESONET STATION IN MARINELAND MEASURED A WIND GUST OF 59 MPH AND

THEN AT 6:30 AM, THE STATION MEASURED A 72 MPH WIND GUST. AT 6:35

AM, A MESONET SITE IN FLAGLER BEACH MEASURED A WIND GUST TO 60 MPH.

AT 8 AM, COCORAHS OBSERVER IN PALM COAST REPORTED HEAVY RAINFALL WAS

PRODUCING MINOR FLOODING. AT 8:30 AM, FLAGLER EM REPORTED MULTIPLE

INSTANCES OF STORM SURGE FLOODING IN MARINELAND. THE STORM WAS

BREAKING THROUGH DUNES AND CAUSING ROAD FLOODING. SOUTH PALMETTO

AVENUE IN FLAGLER BEACH WAS UNDERWATER AROUND THIS TIME AND IN PALM

COAST WATER WAS OVERTOPPING CANAL WALLS WHILE STILL RISING. AT 11:08

AM, BROADCAST MEDIA REPORTED STORM SURGE FLOODING IN PALM COAST NEAR

WASHINGTON OAKS GARDENS STATE PARK AND A1A. ON FRIDAY NOVEMBER 11TH

AT 10:48 AM, AN NWS SURVEY REPORTED THAT MULTIPLE HOMES IN SOUTH

FLAGLER BEACH WERE INUNDATED WITH STORM SURGE CAUSING MAJOR DAMAGE.

EXTENSIVE PROPERTY DAMAGE OCCURRED IN BEVERLY BEACH AND IN THE SOUTH

FLAGLER BEACH AREAS. A TOTAL OF 24 STRUCTURES SUSTAINED MAJOR DAMAGE

DUE TO ESTIMATED STORM SURGE INUNDATION OF AROUND OF 3 FEET ABOVE

NORMALLY DRY GROUND. A DAMAGE ASSESSMENT SURVEY INDICATED ABOUT 2

FEET OF STORM SURGE INUNDATION AT THE INTERSECTION OF SOUTH FLAGLER

AVENUE AND SOUTH 25TH STREET. ABOUT 1 FT 9 INCHES OF STORM SURGE

INUNDATION OCCURRED AT BINGS LANDING AND 1 FT 7 INCHES OF INUNDATION

OCCURRED AT THE INTERSECTION OF SOUTH DAYTONA AVENUE AND SOUTH 26TH

STREET. A PORTION OF STATE ROAD A1A COLLAPSED AFTER BEING UNDERCUT

AS STORM SURGE AND WAVE ACTION ENTIRELY ERODED THE ADJACENT DUNE.

ST JOHNS 0 0 0

STORM SURGE DAMAGE AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IMPACT THE COUNTY.

ESTIMATED STORM SURGE AND WIND DAMAGE LOSS WAS AROUND $34.1 MILLION

DOLLARS. AN ESTIMATED 600,000 CUBIC YARDS OF BEACH SAND AND

APPROXIMATELY 400,000 CUBIC YARDS OF DUNE SAND WERE LOST, FROM

COUNTY MAINTAINED BEACHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING IMPACTED THE

MATANZAS INLET AREA. DAVIS SHORES, CRESCENT BEACH, BUTLER BEACH,

ANASTASIA ISLAND, VILANO BEACH, AND PORTIONS OF ST. AUGUSTINE

EXPERIENCED STORM SURGE INUNDATION. PARTS OF A1A WERE UNDERMINED

AROUND VILANO BEACH. SEVERE DAMAGE OCCURRED TO THE BEACHES AND OTHER

ROADS ALONG THE COAST. ON WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 9TH AT 2 AM, THE C-MAN

STATION AT ST. AUGUSTINE, SAUF1, MEASURED SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM

FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH FROM THE NNE. AT 4:30 AM, A MESONET STATION AT

SUMMERHOUSE MEASURED A WIND GUST OF 50 MPH. AT 7:55 AM, THE C-MAN

STATION SAUF1 MEASURED A WIND GUST OF 51 MPH. AT 9:10 AM, THE ST.

JOHNS COUNTY EMA REPORTED STORM SURGE FLOODING IN THE PARKING LOT OF

CASTILLO DE SAN MARCOS IN HISTORIC ST. AUGUSTINE ALONG THE MATANZAS

RIVER. AT 9:11 AM, THE COUNTY EM REPORTED STORM SURGE FLOODING IN

THE STREETS AND AROUND HOMES NEAR DAVIS SHORES ON ANASTASIA ISLAND.

AT 9:25 AM, THE COUNTY EM REPORTED STORM SURGE FLOOD WATER ACROSS

SURFSIDE AVENUE AND THAT STORM SURGE SURROUNDED HOMES IN VILANO

BEACH. AT 9:30 AM, BUSINESS WEB CAMS IN ST. AUGUSTINE SHOWED ABOUT 6

INCHES TO ONE FOOT OF STORM SURGE FLOOD WATER OVER AVENIDA MENENDEZ

FLORIDA HIGHWAY A1A. AT 10:30 AM, THE COUNTY EM REPORTED STATE ROAD

A1A WAS CLOSED NEAR VILANO BEACH DUE TO STORM SURGE OVERWASH. AT

12:20 PM, THE PUBLIC REPORTED THAT PELLICER CREEK IN FAVER DYKES

STATE PARK WAS IN MODERATE FLOOD DUE TO STORM SURGE. AT THIS TIME,

THE GAUGE WAS 2.22 FT MHHW. AT 12:55 PM, A MESONET SITE AT

SUMMERHOUSE MEASURED A WIND GUST OF 52 MPH. AT 1 PM, THE C-MAN

STATION SAUF1 MEASURED A WIND GUST OF 52 MPH. AT 1:50 PM, THE

DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION REPORTED SIGNIFICANT UNDERMINING OF A

HOME ALONG A1A NEAR VILANO BEACH DUE TO STORM SURGE. THIS

UNDERMINING WAS WORSE THAN RECENT STORMS. AT 1:50 PM, THE DOT ALSO

REPORTED AN OVERWASH OF THE DUNES ALONG A1A JUST NORTH OF

MARINELAND. AT 5:30 PM, DOT REPORTED THAT A1A NEAR OLD A1A NORTH OF

MARINELAND WAS CLOSED DUE TO UNSAFE CONDITIONS INCLUDING OVERWASH ON

THE ROADWAY AND THE ROADWAY UNDER WATER. AT 10:17 PM, THE BROADCAST

MEDIA REPORTED THAT THE MATANZAS RIVER STORM SURGE FLOODED THE

STREETS NEAR THE SEA WALL IN HISTORIC ST. AUGUSTINE. ON THURSDAY,

NOVEMBER 10TH, AT 5:20 AM, A MESONET SITE IN ST. AUGUSTINE MEASURED

A WIND GUST OF 51 MPH. AT 6:19 AM, THE C-MAN STATION SAUF1 MEASURED

A WIND GUST OF 67 MPH. AT 6:30 AM, A MESONET SITE IN ST. AUGUSTINE

MEASURED A WIND GUST OF 52 MPH. AT 6:40 AM, THE SAME MESONET SITE

MEASURED A WIND GUST OF 59 MPH. AT 7 AM, A MESONET SITE IN ST.

AUGUSTINE BEACH MEASURED A WIND GUST OF 55 MPH. AT 7:16 AM, THE AWOS

AT THE ST. AUGUSTINE AIRPORT MEASURED A WIND GUST OF 61 MPH. AT 7:19

AM, THE SAME AWOS MEASURED A WIND GUST OF 55 MPH. AT 7:20 AM, A

MESONET STATION AT THE ST. JOHNS COUNTY FIRE STATION IN SOUTH PONTE

VEDRA BEACH MEASURED A WIND GUST OF 64 MPH. AT 7:28 AM, THE

BROADCAST MEDIA REPORTED THAT A1A FROM ST. JOHNS COUNTY INTO FLAGLER

COUNTY WAS CLOSED DUE TO STORM SURGE WATER FLOWING OVER THE ROAD.

THE HISTORIC BRIDGE OF LIONS WAS ALSO CLOSED IN ST. AUGUSTINE. AT

8:20 AM, THE ST. JOHNS COUNTY FIRE STATION IN SOUTH PONTE VEDRA

BEACH MEASURED A WIND GUST OF 67 MPH. AT 8:30 AM, A MESONET STATION

IN ST. AUGUSTINE MEASURED A WIND GUST OF 60 MPH. AT 8:40 AM, THE ST.

JOHNS COUNTY FIRE STATION IN SOUTH PONTE VEDRA BEACH MEASURED A WIND

GUST OF 71 MPH. AT 8:45 AM, A BUSINESS WEB CAM IN ST. AUGUSTINE

INDICATED ABOUT 2.5 FT OF STORM SURGE INUNDATION ALONG THE AVENIDA

MENENDEZ A1A THROUGH HISTORIC ST. AUGUSTINE. AT 9:30 AM, ST. JOHNS

EM REPORTED A WATER RESCUE WAS ONGOING ALONG STATE ROAD A1A IN SOUTH

PONTE VEDRA BEACH TO EVACUATE A RESIDENT THAT WAS STRANDED DURING

STORM SURGE FLOODING. AT 9:30 AM, ST. JOHNS EMA REPORTED THAT MAY

STREET WAS CLOSED WEST OF USINA CAUSEWAY DUE TO STORM SURGE

FLOODING. AT 11:41 AM, BROADCAST MEDIA REPORTED THAT A1A WAS

UNDERMINED AND PARTLY COLLAPSED IN VILANO BEACH IN THE NORTH BOUND

LANE DUE TO STORM SURGE AND EROSION. AT 11:50 AM, BROADCAST MEDIA

REPORTED THAT STATE ROAD A1A WAS CLOSED IN CRESCENT BEACH DUE TO

STORM SURGE FLOODING OVER THE ROAD. AT 12 PM, THE USGS TIDE GAUGE ON

PELLICER CREEK IN FAVER DYKES STATE PARK RECORDED A PEAK STORM SURGE

INUNDATION OF 3.82 FT MHHW. MAJOR FLOODING BEGINS AT 3.3 FT MHHW AT

THIS LOCATION. AT 2 PM, ST JOHNS EMA REPORTED AN APPROXIMATE 4 MILE

STRETCH OF STATE ROAD A1A WAS INACCESSIBLE FROM GUANA RIVER ROAD TO

CARCABA ROAD DUE TO STORM SURGE FLOODING. ABOUT 2,000 HOMES ARE

LOCATED ALONG THIS STRETCH OF ROADWAY THAT WAS CUT-OFF DUE TO STORM

SURGE. ABOUT 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL IMPACTED THE COUNTY FROM

NICOLE.

PUTNAM

MAJOR RIVER FLOODING OCCURRED ALONG THE ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN WITH

NUMEROUS HOMES AND STRUCTURE FLOODED IN STEPHENS POINT AND WELAKA.

GUSTY TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE COUNTY CAUSED SPORADIC

TREE DAMAGE. ON WEDNESDAY NOV 9TH AROUND 6 PM, MODERATE TIDAL

FLOODING WAS REPORTED WITH WATER DEPTH 2.54 FT ABOVE GROUND LEVEL

MHHW DATUM AT THE DUNNS CREEK GAUGE NEAR SATSUMA. THE PUTNAM COUNTY

EM RELAYED IMAGES OF MULTIPLE STREETS AND YARDS FLOODED ALONG DUNNS

CREEK. AROUND THE SAME TIME, THE EM SHARED PHOTOS OF STREET FLOODING

ALONG ROADS IN WELAKA NEAR THE ST. JOHNS RIVER WITH WATER DEPTH

ESTIMATED AROUND 1-2 FT INUNDATION. ON THURSDAY NOV 10TH AT 7:20 AM,

THE PUTNAM EM REPORTED STORM SURGE FLOODING IN THE SPORTSMANS HARBOR

AREA IN WELAKA/STEPHENS POINT. WATER WAS HALFWAY UP THE FIRE

HYDRANTS AND SOME MAILBOXES WITH ROADS NON-DRIVABLE DUE TO FLOODING.

AROUND 9:07 AM, A MESONET STATION ABOUT 5 MILES SE OF CRESCENT CITY

MEASURED A WIND GUST OF 56 MPH. BY 10 AM, THE PUTNAM EM REPORTED

THAT THE MAYOR OF WELAKA REPORTED STORM SURGE FLOODING THAT EXCEEDED

IAN LEVELS. THE DUNNS CREEK TIDE GAUGE HAD A MORNING CREST OF 3.1 FT

MHHW DATUM (MAJOR FLOODING BEGINS AT 3.0 FT MHHW AT THIS LOCATION).

AT 10:35 AM, THE LARKIN AIRPORT K28J MEASURED A WIND GUST OF 51 MPH.

LINGERING MAJOR TO MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING CONTINUED THROUGH THE

NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO A LINGERING SEICHE WAVE IN THE RIVER THAT

GRADUALLY DAMPENED WITH TIDE CYCLES. MEASURED STORM TOTAL RAINFALL

ACROSS THE COUNTY RANGED BETWEEN 2-4 INCHES.

GLYNN

MANY AREAS OF STORM SURGE FLOODING REPORTED FROM JEKYLL ISLAND TO

AREAS IN BRUNSWICK AND ST SIMONS ISLAND. MORE SIGNIFICANT SURGE

FLOODING WAS REPORTED OVER THE SOUTHEAST ST SIMONS ISLAND AND IN THE

CITY OF BRUNSWICK. WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE IMPACTED

LOCATIONS EAST OF INTERSTATE 95. ON 11/10 AT 6:57 AM, THE ASOS AT

BRUNSWICK MCKINNON AIRPORT (KSSI) MEASURED A WIND GUST OF 51 MPH. AT

10 AM, THE USGS TIDE STATION AT THE ST. SIMONS ISLAND VILLAGE PIER

RECORDED A PEAK STORM SURGE OF 3.67 FT MHHW DATUM. MAJOR FLOODING

BEGINS AT 3.5 FT MHHW AT THIS LOCATION. AT 10:34 AM, RIVERSIDE DRIVE

IN BRUNSWICK WAS FLOODED BY STORM SURGE PER A PUBLIC REPORT. AT

10:58 AM, LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED THAT THE FJ TORRES CAUSEWAY TO

SAINT SIMONS ISLAND AND THE SEA ISLAND CAUSEWAY WAS FLOODED DUE TO

STORM SURGE FLOODING AND WAS CLOSED. AT 11:19 AM, GLYNN COUNTY

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED THAT U.S. HIGHWAY 17 FROM THE BASE OF

THE SIDNEY LANIER BRIDGE TO PARKWOOD DRIVE WAS CLOSED DUE TO STORM

SURGE FLOODING. AT 11:22 AM, GLYNN COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT

REPORTED THAT BAY STREET AND MANSFIELD STREET WERE CLOSED IN THE

CITY OF BRUNSWICK DUE TO STORM SURGE FLOODING. AT 11:24 AM, GLYNN

COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED THAT THE EAST BEACH CAUSEWAY ON

SAINT SIMONS ISLAND WAS CLOSED DUE TO STORM SURGE FLOODING. OCEAN

ROAD AND BRUCE DRIVE WERE ALSO CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING. ARNOLD AVENUE

IN THE VILLAGE WAS CLOSED DUE TO STORM SURGE. AT 11:29 AM, GLYNN

COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED STORM SURGE WAS OVER THE

ENTRANCE AREA TO THE JEKYLL ISLAND CAUSEWAY. AT 11:36 AM GLYNN

COUNTY EMA REPORTED THAT STORM SURGE FLOOD WATER WAS OVER THE ROAD

ON GLOUSCESTER STREET AND LANIER BLVD IN BRUNSWICK. THE WATER WAS

OVER THE ROAD ON LANIER BLVD NEAR PRINCE STREET TO NEAR THE GLYNN

COUNTY MIDDLE SCHOOL. AT 11:46 AM, GLYNN COUNTY EMA REPORTED THAT

STORM SURGE FLOOD WATER WAS OVER THE BLYTHE ISLAND PARKWAY. AT 11:58

AM, GLYNN COUNTY EMA REPORTED THAT THE BEACH CROSSOVER WAS DESTROYED

ON JEKYLL ISLAND. AT 12 PM, THE PUBLIC REPORTED THAT STORM SURGE

WATER WAS OVER THE ROADWAY AND SURROUNDED STRUCTURES ON ST SIMONS

ISLAND. WATER WAS POSSIBLY IN SOME GROUND LEVEL STRUCTURES. ALSO AT

NOON, GLYNN COUNTY EMA REPORTED THAT STORM SURGE FLOOD WATER WAS AT

TWO WAY FISH CAMP. AT 12:03 PM, THE PUBLIC RELAYED A PICTURE OF

PUBLIC WORKS EQUIPMENT REMOVING DEBRIS FROM THE FJ TORRAS CAUSEWAY.

WATER SUBSIDED FROM THE ROADWAY IN THIS AREA BUT DEBRIS MANAGEMENT

WAS ONGOING. AT 12:24 PM, GLYNN COUNTY EMA REPORTED THAT STORM SURGE

FLOOD WATER COVERED SOME ROADWAYS ON OAK GROVE ISLAND.

CAMDEN

MOST IMPACTS WERE NEAR AREAS IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT TO COASTAL

WATERWAYS. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS OCCURRED AROUND HIGH TIDE

THURSDAY MORNING, NOVEMBER 11TH WHERE MOST STORM SURGE INUNDATION

DAMAGE OCCURRED IN DOWNTOWN ST. MARYS AREA AND CUJO POINT, A SMALL

SUBDIVISION IN THE DOVER BLUFF AREA IN NORTHEAST CAMDEN COUNTY.

AROUND 9:30 AM ON 11/10, SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION, SURGE FLOODING,

AND FLOOD WATER ENTERED THE DUNE SYSTEM ON CUMBERLAND ISLAND. AT

9:55 AM, CUMBERLAND ISLAND NATIONAL SEASHORE EMPLOYEES REPORTED

WATER TOPPED THE SEAWALL AND MINOR STREET FLOODING WAS OCCURRING IN

ST. MARYS ON ST. MARYS STREET. THE U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY TIDE

STATION ON CUMBERLAND ISLAND AT THE SEA CAMP DOCK RECORDED A PEAK

WATER LEVEL OF 3.47 FT ABOVE MHHW DATUM ON NOVEMBER 11TH AT 11 AM.

MAJOR FLOODING BEGINS AT 3.7 FEET ABOVE MHHW. THIS WAS THE HIGHEST

TIDE RECORDED AT THIS GAUGE SINCE HURRICANE MATTHEW IN OCTOBER 2016,

WHEN THE PEAK WATER LEVEL WAS 3.48 FT ABOVE MHHW. ON 11/10 AROUND

2:20 PM, SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE FLOODING OCCURRED IN DOWNTOWN ST.

MARYS NEAR THE WATERFRONT AT ST. MARYS HOWARD GILMAN MEMORIAL

WATERFRONT PARK, BOAT RAMP, AND ON RESIDENTIAL ROADS NEAR ST MARYS

STREET W AND ST MARYS STREET E. TWO BRIDGES WERE CLOSED IN ST.

MARYS. PEAK WIND GUSTS OF 39 MPH WERE OBSERVED AT THE STAFFORD GAUGE

AND ALONG I-95.  IN ST. MARYS, TWO HOUSES WERE DAMAGED FROM FALLING

TREES, BOTH AWAY FROM THE WATER, AND SEVERAL HOMES AND BUSINESSES

NEAR THE ST. MARYS RIVER THAT HAD WATER INTRUSION INSIDE THE

STRUCTURES. ONE ST. MARYS RESIDENT TWO BLOCKS NORTH OF THE

WATERFRONT REPORTED 7 INCHES OF WATER IN ONE OF THEIR BUILDINGS. AT

CUJO POINT, RESIDENTS HAD AS MUCH AS 15 INCHES OF WATER IN THEIR

YARDS. THERE WAS ONE RESIDENCE WITH APPROXIMATELY 10 INCHES OF WATER

IN THEIR LIVING QUARTERS. THE NEIGHBORHOOD HAS A LARGE VOLUME OF

MARSH GRASS TO CLEAN UP FROM YARDS AND THE ROADWAY. THERE WERE 5

BRIDGES IMPACTED BY STORM SURGE AND TIDAL FLOODING, AND ALL WERE

CLEARED BY GDOT AS HAVING NO DAMAGE. THE FOUR ST. MARYS BRIDGES

IMPACTED WERE HIGHWAY 40 AT DARK ENTRY CREEK, BORRELL BLVD,

SUGARMILL BLVD (SOUTH DARK ENTRY CK), AND THE NORTH RIVER CAUSEWAY.

AT ITS HIGHEST POINT, WATER WAS ON THE TRAVEL PORTION OF THE

CAUSEWAY. IN UNINCORPORATED AREAS, THE BRIDGE ON HARRIETTS BLUFF

ROAD JUST WEST OF SHEFFIELD ISLAND RD. WAS IMPACTED BUT NOT DAMAGED.

SHEFFIELD ISLAND RD WAS BRIEFLY UNDER WATER, AND A ONE MILE STRETCH

OF DIRT ROAD IN THE DOVER BLUFF AREA, NEAR CUJO POINT, WAS FLOODED

THEN WASHED AWAY. THREE TORNADO WARNINGS WERE ISSUED DURING THE

EVENT WITH NO INDICATIONS OF TORNADO DAMAGE. RAIN BANDS CREATED

BRIEF PERIODS OF TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. A TREE

DOWN/POWER OUTAGE INCIDENT NORTHWEST OF WOODBINE WAS DETERMINED TO

BE FROM THE WIND GUSTS AND NOT A TORNADO.

NASSAU

IMPACTS FROM NICOLE WERE LIMITED MAINLY FROM YULEE EAST TOWARD THE

COAST. MAJOR STORM SURGE FLOODING WAS REPORTED ACROSS FERNANDINA

BEACH AND AMELIA CITY. AT 10:54 AM ON THU NOV 10TH, THE NATIONAL

OCEAN SERVICE TIDE STATION ALONG THE AMELIA RIVER IN FERNANDINA

BEACH RECORDED A PEAK WATER LEVEL OF 3.81 FEET ABOVE MEAN HIGHER

HIGH WATER (MHHW). MAJOR FLOODING BEGINS AT 3.5 FEET ABOVE MHHW.

THIS WAS THE HIGHEST WATER LEVEL SINCE HURRICANE MATTHEW IN OCTOBER

2016, WHEN THE WATER LEVEL AT THIS GAUGE PEAKED AT 4.13 FEET ABOVE

MHHW. ON WEDNESDAY NOV. 9TH AROUND 9:50 AM, NASSAU COUNTY FIRE

RESCUE REPORTED TIDAL FLOODING ALONG NORTH FRONT STREET. AT 11:12

AM, NASSAU COUNTY FIRE RESCUE REPORTED ESCAMBIA STREET WAS FLOODED

AN IMPASSABLE DUE TO TIDAL FLOODING INUNDATION DUE TO THE STRONG

NOR’EASTER AHEAD OF NICOLE. AT 11 AM, NASSAU COUNTY FIRE RESCUE

REPORTED THAT DADE STREET WAS CLOSED DUE TO FLOOD WATER. AROUND 815

AM ON THU NOV. 10TH, MAJOR STORM SURGE FLOODING WAS OBSERVED NORTH

OF THE HARBOR MARINA IN FERNANDINA BEACH. THE FERNANDINA BEACH FIRE

DEPARTMENT REPORTED FLOODING ALONG N FRONT STREET. DADE STREET WAS

CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING. AROUND 1038 AM ON NOV. 11TH, A STRUCTURE

BENEATH THE SHAVE ICWW BRIDGE HAD ABOUT 6-12 INCHES OF WATER INSIDE.

AT 10:41 AM, NASSAU COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED STREET

FLOODING ON PINEY ISLAND DRIVE WITH ABOUT 1 FOOT OVER ROADWAY.

WEATHER OBSERVATIONS MEASURED WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 40-50 MPH IN YULEE

AND FERNANDINA BEACH. AROUND 2.5 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN FELL IN

FERNANDINA BEACH.

BRANTLEY

ONE RESIDENCE HAD WIND DAMAGE FROM A FALLEN TREE IN WAYNESVILLE.

SUWANNEE

AROUND 12:29 PM ON NOVEMBER 10TH, SUWANNEE COUNTY EM REPORTED THAT

COUNTY ROAD 137 WAS CLOSED NEAR WELLBORN DUE TO DOWNED POWER LINES,

TREES AND POWER POLES.

DUVAL

SEVERE BEACH EROSION AND SIGNIFICANT DUNE LOSS OCCURRED ALONG THE

JACKSONVILLE BEACHES WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. MAJOR TO

MODERATE STORM SURGE FLOODING OCCURRED WITHIN THE ST. JOHNS RIVER

BASIN INCLUDING THE TROUT RIVER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND

DAMAGE OCCURRED. THE JACKSONVILLE BEACH PIER SUSTAINED MINOR DAMAGE

WITH A FEW PLANKS BLOWN OUT. ON WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 9TH, AT 2:40 AM,

A MESONET STATION NEAR FORT CAROLINE MEASURED A WIND GUST OF 52 MPH.

AT 4:20 AM, THE STATION MEASURED A GUST TO 56 MPH FROM THE NNE. AT

9:30 AM, THE PARK SERVICE ON LITTLE TALBOT ISLAND REPORTED THAT

STORM SURGE INUNDATION WAS OVER THE ROAD DURING THE HIGH TIDE AND

IMPACTED THE ENTRANCE TO FORT GEORGE ISLAND. AT 9:35 AM, THE PARK

SERVICE REPORTED MINOR STORM SURGE INUNDATION DURING THE HIGH TIDE

AFFECTED MOST OF THE FORT CAROLINE NATIONAL MEMORIAL. AT 10:30 AM,

THE BROADCAST MEDIA REPORTED THAT HOGAN’S CREEK OVERFLOWED WITH

STORM SURGE FLOODING AND FLOODED A NEARBY PARKING LOT IN

SPRINGFIELD. AROUND THE SAME TIME, THE SOUTH BANK OF THE ST. JOHNS

RIVER FLOODED WITH STORM SURGE AND INUNDATED SOUTHAMPTON ROAD AROUND

HIGH TIDE. THE RIVER GAUGE AT JACKSONVILLE MEASURED 1.83 FT MHHW

WHICH IS MINOR FLOODING FOR THIS LOCATION AT HIGH TIDE AROUND 10:30

AM. AT 10:34 AM, BROADCAST MEDIA SHARED A PHOTO OF A FLOODED PARKING

LOT NEAR THE BEACH BLVD BOAT RAMP NEAR POTTSBURG CREEK DURING HIGH

TIDE. THIS AREA IS PRONE TO TIDAL FLOODING. AT 4:30 PM, A MESONET

SITE AT JACKSONVILLE BEACH MEASURED A WIND GUST OF 50 MPH. A BOAT

BROKE LOOSE FROM THE MARINA IN ORTEGA RIVER AND CAUGHT FIRE AND

SUNK. IN ADDITION, AN ELECTRICAL FIRE DESTROYED AN APARTMENT

BUILDING AT ISLAND POINTE COMPLEX ALONG THE TROUT RIVER. NUMBER OF

POWER OUTAGES REPORTED WERE AT LEAST 25,000. ON THURSDAY, NOVEMBER

10TH, AT 12:28 AM, THE ASOS STATION AT THE JACKSONVILLE

INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT MEASURED A WIND GUST OF 51 MPH FROM THE NORTH.

AT 5:36 AM, THE MAYPORT NAVAL STATION ASOS SITE MEASURED A WIND GUST

OF 52 MPH. AT 8:20 AM, A MESONET SITE AT NEPTUNE BEACH MEASURED A

WIND GUST OF 52 MPH. AT 8:52 AM, THE ASOS STATION AT NAVAL STATION

MAYPORT MEASURED A WIND GUST OF 55 MPH. AT 9:05 AM, THE CRAIG

EXECUTIVE AIRPORT ASOS MEASURED A WIND GUST OF 56 MPH. AT 9:22 AM,

THE JACKSONVILLE INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT ASOS MEASURED A WIND GUST OF

60 MPH. BY 9:25 AM, BROADCAST MEDIA REPORTED THAT MULTIPLE AREAS IN

SAN MARCO AND THE SOUTHBANK AREA OF THE ST. JOHNS RIVER EXPERIENCED

STORM SURGE FLOODING. STREETS INCLUDING ALAMO STREET, RIVER ROAD,

SOUTHAMPTON ROAD, SAN MARCO BLVD AND LASALLE STREET WERE FLOODED. AT

9:53 AM, THE ASOS STATION AT MAYPORT MEASURED A WIND GUST OF 59 MPH.

AT 9:56 AM, THE HUGUENOT PARK MESONET STATION MEASURED A WIND GUST

OF 73 MPH. THIS WAS THE STRONGEST GUST ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE

NICOLE FOR THE NWS JACKSONVILLE FORECAST AREA (SE GA AND NE FL). AT

10 AM, A MESONET STATION AT TIAA BANK FIELD IN JACKSONVILLE MEASURED

A WIND GUST OF 55 MPH. AT 10:03 AM, THE CRAIG EXECUTIVE AIRPORT ASOS

MEASURED A WIND GUST OF 58 MPH. AT 10:06 AM, THE NOS TIDE GAUGE AT

MAYPORT NEAR THE ENTRANCE OF THE ST. JOHNS RIVER BASIN RECORDED A

PEAK STORM SURGE INUNDATION OF 3.58 FT MHHW DATUM. MAJOR FLOODING

BEGINS AT 3.3 FT MHHW AT THIS LOCATION. THIS WAS HIGHER THAN THE

PEAK WATER LEVEL OF 3.21 FT MHHW THAT OCCURRED DURING HURRICANE

MATTHEW IN OCTOBER 2016. AT 10:16 AM, THE PUBLIC REPORTED MAJOR

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF YARDS AND DOCKS IN THE HAMMOCKS OF OAK

LANDING ALONG THE ICWW. AT 10:23 AM, BROADCAST MEDIA REPORTED 1-2 FT

OF STORM SURGE FLOODING IN THE STREETS OF SAN MARCO AND HIGH TIDE

WAS STILL ABOUT 1.5 HRS FROM PEAK INUNDATION. TIDE GAUGES BETWEEN

DOWNTOWN JACKSONVILLE AND THE ATLANTIC ALONG THE ST. JOHNS RIVER

WERE ALL REPORTING MAJOR FLOODING LEVELS. AT 12:20 PM, THE PUBLIC

REPORTED SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE FLOOD INUNDATION FROM THE ICWW WITH

WATER NEAR HOMES AND IN LOWER PORTIONS OF MARSH HAMMOCK DRIVE EAST.

THE WATER DEPTH WAS DEEPER THAN IAN (2022) BUT LESS THAN IRMA

(2017). HIGH TIDE WAS IMMINENT AT THIS LOCATION. AT 12:50 PM,

BROADCAST MEDIA REPORTED SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IN NEIGHBORHOODS NEAR

THE TROUT RIVER OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. SOME LOCATIONS REPORTED 2.5

FT OF STORM SURGE INUNDATION FLOODING. AROUND THIS TIME, AN

ELECTRICAL FIRE DESTROYED AN APARTMENT BUILDING AT ISLAND POINTE

COMPLEX ALONG THE TROUT RIVER. AT 12:59 PM, THE PUBLIC REPORTED

WATER WAS IN YARDS AND OVER THE DOCKS NEAR THE ISLE OF PALMS ALONG

THE ICWW BETWEEN BEACH BLVD AND JTB BLVD AND WAS MUCH HIGHER THAN

IAN (2022). AT 1:06 PM, THE USGS TIDE GAUGE AT THE MAIN STREET

BRIDGE IN JACKSONVILLE RECORDED A PEAK STORM SURGE INUNDATION VALUE

OF 3.26 FT MHHW. MAJOR FLOODING FOR THIS LOCATION BEGINS AT 3 FT

MHHW DATUM. AT 1:55 PM, BROADCAST MEDIA REPORTED THAT THE

SOUTHAMPTON NEIGHBORHOOD ALONG THE SOUTH BANK OF THE ST. JOHNS RIVER

EXPERIENCED STORM SURGE FLOODING INUNDATION. STREETS WERE FLOODED

AND WATER SURROUNDED HOMES WITH SOME WATER INTRUSION POSSIBLY INSIDE

SOME STRUCTURES. AT 2 PM, BROADCAST MEDIA REPORTED STORM SURGE

INUNDATION WAS ONGOING AT MEMORIAL PARK IN THE JACKSONVILLE

RIVERSIDE AREA. STREETS INCLUDING MARGARET STREET AND RIVERSIDE

AVENUE WERE FLOODED WITH HIGH TIDE. FLOOD WATER INUNDATED THE GROUND

FLOOR OF THE ADJACENT BUILDING AT PARK LANE CONDOS. STORM SURGE

INUNDATION IN RIVERSIDE REACHED OSCEOLA AND OAK STREETS. PEOPLE WERE

WADING THROUGH THE WATER AND THE WATER WAS APPROXIMATELY MID-THIGH

DEEP. RIVER GAUGES IN THE AREA REPORTED A MAJOR FLOOD STAGE WITH

INUNDATION 3.25-3.35 FT MHHW. STREET FLOODING OCCURRED IN PIRATES

COVE IN THE ORTEGA RIVER FROM STORM SURGE. A LARGE TREE FELL ONTO A

HOME IN THE JAX NORTHSIDE RESULTING IN SUBSTANTIAL DAMAGE. OTHER

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TREE DAMAGE OCCURRED ACROSS THE COUNTY. MINOR

DAMAGE WAS REPORTED TO BEACH WALKOVERS. A BOAT BROKE LOOSE FROM THE

MARINA IN THE ORTEGA RIVER, CAUGHT FIRE AND SANK. RECORDED RAINFALL

WAS GENERALLY FROM 2-4 INCHES ACROSS THE COUNTY.

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