Talking the Tropics With Mike: Active Pacific... quiet Atlantic showing signs of increasing activity

Jacksonville, Fl. — The “Buresh Bottom Line”: Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Preparation Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.

STAY INFORMED: Get the * FREE * First Alert Weather app

FREE NEWS UPDATES, ALERTS: Action News Jax app for Apple | For Android

WATCH “Preparing for the Storm”

WATCH “The Ins & Outs of Hurricane Season”

READ the First Alert Hurricane Center “Survival Guide”

LISTEN & WATCH “Surviving the Storm” - WOKV Radio & Action News Jax

***** ALWAYS CHECK & RE-CHECK THE LATEST FORECAST & UPDATES! *****

REMEMBER WHEN A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE IS APPROACHING: Taping windows is *not* recommended & will not keep glass from breaking. Instead close curtains & blinds.

Realize the forecast cone (”cone of uncertainty”) is the average forecast error over a given time - out to 5 days - & *does not* indicate the width of the storm &/or where damage that might occur.

A couple of areas to watch during the next 1-2 weeks over the Central & Eastern Atlantic. Some slow development will be possible while the waves move west/northwest. Conditions are only marginally favorable through the weekend but become more favorable next week. A lead tropical wave several hundred miles off the coast of Africa may develop first but will likely struggle.

A “follow-up” wave coming off the coast of Africa now may have the best shot of significant long term development. Even so - it would appear this wave will stay well out over the Atlantic through at least the middle of next week. At that time location of the Bermuda High over the Atlantic + any upper level trough moving across or near the U.S. will be pivotal as to where this system might go. But plenty of time to watch, track & monitor.

And the NHC has highlighted the Western Gulf of Mexico. While weak low pressure may eventually emerge - & appears to be tied to a tropical wave that will move west across S. Florida Sunday - significant development does not appear likely while moving toward the west.

Check out the upper oceanic heat content (UOHC) [tropical cyclone heat potential/TCHP] across the SW Atlantic, Gulf & Caribbean. The warmth is very deep. In fact, from Jax N.W.S. forecast Al Sandrik: “Those UOHC/TCHP values off our coast are about a month ahead of time (and last week were higher than anything I have ever seen).”

Water vapor loop (dark blue/yellow is dry mid & upper level air):

July tropical cyclone origins:

Averages below based on climatology for the Atlantic Basin for August:

Wind shear:

Saharan dust spreads west each year from Africa by the prevailing winds (from east to west over the Atlantic). Dry air - yellow/orange/red/pink. Widespread dust is indicative of dry air that can impede the development of tropical cyclones. However, sometimes “wanna’ be” waves will just wait until they get to the other side of - or away from - the plume then try to develop if other conditions are favorable. In my personal opinion, way too much is made about the presence of Saharan dust & how it relates to tropical cyclones. In any case, the peak of Saharan dust typically is in June & July.

2023 names..... “Emily” is the next name on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random by the World Meteorological Organization... repeat every 6 years). Historic storms are retired [Florence & Michael in ’18... Dorian in ’19 & Laura, Eta & Iota in ‘20, Ida in ‘21 & Fiona & Ian in ‘22]). In fact, this year’s list of names is rather infamous with “Katrina”, “Rita” & “Wilma” retired from the ‘05 list & “Harvey”, “Irma”,“Maria” & “Nate” from the ‘17 list. The WMO decided - beginning in 2021 - that the Greek alphabet will be no longer used & instead there will be a supplemental list of names if the first list is exhausted (has only happened three times - 2005, 2020 & 2021). The naming of tropical cyclones began on a consistent basis in 1953. More on the history of naming tropical cyclones * here *.

East Atlantic:

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear:

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

Deep oceanic heat content over the Gulf, Caribbean & deep tropical Atlantic. The brighter colors are expanding dramatically as we near the peak of the hurricane season.: