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REMEMBER WHEN A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE IS APPROACHING: Taping windows is *NOT* helpful & will not keep glass from breaking.
Realize the forecast cone (”cone of uncertainty”) is the average forecast error over a given time - out to 5 days - & *does not* indicate the width of the storm &/or damage that might occur.
A recap of the “nuts & bolts” with “Nicole” in the “Buresh Blog” * here * - “The November Nemesis that was Nicole”.
There are no areas of concern right now across the Atlantic Basin...
Next week - a strong upper level trough will move across the U.S. Lower 48. At or near the base of the trough, low pressure is likely to form. Long range forecast models indicate this low will be anywhere from the Central Gulf to inland along the Gulf Coast/SE U.S. The low will then move some semblance of northeast & end up over the Western Atlantic. *At this time* it does not appear the low will be tropical but could have some hybrid (subtropical) characteristics before the system - as long as the low is over the Gulf vs. over land - comes ashore somewhere in the middle to late part of next week though there is little agreement among the long range global forecast models at this point. In any case, significant tropical development is unlikely though the low should enhance rainfall for some parts of the Southern & Southeast U.S.
There is also a large area of storminess over the tropical Southeast Atlantic that will move little over the next several days. Tropical development is unlikely as shear is strong.
Water vapor loop shows pockets of dry air (dark blue) across portions of the Atlantic Basin along with a lot of “swirls” (low pressure) along with “bands” of higher moisture near & ahead of fronts - common once deep into autumn.
November tropical cyclone origins:
Averages below based on climatology for the Atlantic Basin through November:
Saharan dust spreads west each year from Africa by the prevailing winds (from east to west over the Atlantic). Dry air - yellow/orange/red/pink. Widespread dust is indicative of dry air that can impede the development of tropical cyclones. However, sometimes “wanna’ be” waves will just wait until they get to the other side of - or away from - the plume then try to develop if other conditions are favorable. In my personal opinion, way too much is made about the presence of Saharan dust & how it relates to tropical cyclones. In any case, we’ve had several large dust plumes spread west to the Caribbean & Gulf with the peak of Saharan dust typically in June & July.
2022 names..... “Owen” is the next name on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random by the World Meteorological Organization... repeat every 6 years). Historic storms are retired [Florence & Michael in ’18... Dorian in ’19 & Laura, Eta & Iota in ‘20 & Ida in ‘21]). In fact, this year’s list of names is rather infamous with “Charley”, “Frances”, “Jeanne” & “Ivan” retired from the ‘04 list (all hit Fl.) & “Matthew” was retired in 2016. The WMO decided - beginning last year - that the Greek alphabet will be no longer used & instead there will be a supplemental list of names if the first list is exhausted (has only happened three times - 2005, 2020 & 2021). The naming of tropical cyclones began on a consistent basis in 1953. More on the history of naming tropical cyclones * here *.
Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear:
Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):
Deep oceanic heat content over the Gulf, Caribbean & deep tropical Atlantic:
Sea surface temp. anomalies:
SE U.S. surface map:
Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:
Surface analysis of the Gulf:
GFS wave forecast at 48 & 72 hours (2 & 3 days):
Atlantic Basin wave period forecast for 24, 48 & 72 hours respectively:
The East Pacific:
Global tropical activity:
Cox Media Group