Talking the Tropics With Mike: Small low pressure headed for NE Fl./SE Ga... eye on SW Gulf again

Jacksonville, Fl. — The “Buresh Bottom Line”: Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Preparation Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.

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REMEMBER WHEN A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE IS APPROACHING: Taping windows is *not* recommended & will not keep glass from breaking. Instead close curtains & blinds.

Realize the forecast cone (”cone of uncertainty”) is the average forecast error over a given time - out to 5 days - & *does not* indicate the width of the storm &/or where damage might occur.

*** LOCAL (Jacksonville/NE Fl./SE Ga.) IMPACTS FROM THE TROPICS: The Atlantic disturbance will continue to cause gusty winds, rip currents & bands/clusters of heavy rain, a few t’storms. The peak impacts will be through Friday evening with breakers at the beaches as high as 4-6 feet accompanied by a high rip current risk. This will not be a “major” storm.

The Atlantic Basin Overview:

(1) the upper level trough over the Central/SW Atlantic which left behind a “piece” of the trough last weekend through the last few days has resulted in a small low pressure area - ‘92-L’ - now just east of the upper Florida coast. It continues to look like a surface trough of low pressure arriving at the Southeast U.S. coast stretched out from the Carolina’s to Florida by Friday night with the weak surface low moving ashore somewhere not too far from Jacksonville. The low is crossing the Gulf Stream on its transit to the coast, so we might see some better organization & possibly an uptick in the overall intensity. So it’s *possible* the 92-L could be upgraded to a depression before reaching land. Ultimately - it’s all semantics though as my expectation is - whether upgraded or not - for bands of heavy showers/a few t’storms to spread to the coast & inland though Fri. evening with some heavy rain at times, gusty winds & a high rip current risk at the beaches. Once inland, the weak low will weaken & dissipate rather quickly.

“Buresh Bottom Line”: ‘92-L’ will not be a “big” storm. With any luck it appears this system will finally kickoff the wet season for Jacksonville & surrounding areas. There will be gusty onshore flow resulting in rough seas/surf & a high rip current risk at area beaches. Stay out of the ocean Friday or - at the very least - swim & surf with a buddy & as close to a lifeguard as at all possible. Beach & water conditions will improve rather dramatically over the weekend.

Radar imagery from South Florida Water Management District:

NE Fl./SE Ga. rainfall forecast for the 48 hours:

(2) The broad low pressure over the Bay of Campeche finally got its act together & was upgraded Wed. morning to the first Atlantic named storm of the season - “Alberto” moving ashore on the central coast of Mexico Thu. morning then dissipated by late afternoon over the inland mountainous terrain.

(3) A third area of low pressure is expected to develop over the weekend into early next week over the Southern & Western Gulf of Mexico pretty close to where Alberto traversed. With upper level high pressure remaining across the Central & Eastern U.S., this low should stay over the Western Gulf & gradually get pushed more west with time - again into Mexico. So no impacts to Florida.

The upper oceanic heat content (UOHC) [tropical cyclone heat potential/TCHP] across the SW Atlantic, Gulf & Caribbean is unseasonably high for this time of year:

Water vapor loop (dark blue/yellow is dry mid & upper level air):

June tropical cyclone origins (early season breeding grounds are the Gulf &/or Western Caribbean:

Averages below based on climatology for the Atlantic Basin for November (7 hurricanes so far, 19 tropical storms):

Wind shear (red - strong shear; green - low shear):

Saharan dust spreads west each year from Africa driven by the prevailing winds (from east to west over the Atlantic). Dry air = yellow/orange/red/pink. Widespread dust is indicative of dry air that *can* interfere with the development of tropical cyclones. However, sometimes “wanna’ be” waves will just wait until they get to the other side of - or away from - the dust plume then try to develop if other conditions are favorable. In my personal opinion, there is way too much “hoopla” about the presence of Saharan dust & how it relates to tropical cyclones. In any case, the peak of Saharan dust typically is in June & July.

2024 names..... “Beryl” is the first name on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random by the World Meteorological Organization... repeat every 6 years). Historic storms are retired [Florence & Michael in ’18 (the last time this year’s list was used)... Dorian in ’19 & Laura, Eta & Iota in ‘20, Ida in ‘21 & Fiona & Ian in ‘22]). In fact, this year’s list of names is rather infamous because of the ‘04 season when Charley, Frances, Jeanne & Ivan - all retired names - hit Florida within a matter of about 6 weeks. The WMO decided - beginning in 2021 - that the Greek alphabet will be no longer used & instead there will be a supplemental list of names if the first list is exhausted (has only happened three times - 2005, 2020 & 2021). The naming of tropical cyclones began on a consistent basis in 1953. More on the history of naming tropical cyclones * here *.

East Atlantic:

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear:

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

Deep oceanic heat content over the Gulf, Caribbean & deep tropical Atlantic. The colors will brighten greatly as the water warms to greater depths deeper into the season:

Sea surface temp. anomalies:

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:


Atlantic Basin wave period forecast for 24, 48, 72 & 96 hours respectively:

East & Central Pacific:

West Pacific:

Global tropical activity:

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