Jacksonville, Fl. — The “Buresh Bottom Line”: Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Preparation Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.
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REMEMBER WHEN A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE IS APPROACHING: Taping windows is *not* recommended & will not keep glass from breaking. Instead close curtains & blinds.
Realize the forecast cone (”cone of uncertainty”) is the average forecast error over a given time - out to 5 days - & *does not* indicate the width of the storm &/or where damage that might occur.
*** LOCAL (Jacksonville/NE Fl./SE Ga.) IMPACTS FROM THE TROPICS: None through this week...
The Atlantic Basin Overview:
** Gert re-developed last week but swill be short-lived again while over the Central Atlantic soon to become absorbed by the much larger circulation of extra-tropical Idalia.
** T.D. #12 formed over the far East Atlantic Fri. becoming “Katia” early Sat. but will remain over the far E. Atlantic & will soon be post-tropical.
** A strong tropical wave has emerged off the coast of Africa & *could* become a long track Atlantic hurricane during the upcoming week.
** A monster tropical wave is about to move off the coast of Africa & - while it is likely to develop - should stay far out to sea over the E. Atlantic
(1) Gert is still over the Central Atlantic - regenerated after first developing nearly 2 weeks ago but will soon be absorbed by post-tropical Idalia with no threat to land.
(2) “Katia” formed early Fri. as was upgraded to a tropical storm early Saturday. The storm will move north over the open E. Atlantic & is no threat to land.
(3) A strong tropical wave - ‘95-L’ - has moved off the coast of Africa. This wave has a good chance to develop over the main development region (MDR) through the upcoming week & could become a textbook long track hurricane. There *COULD* be a threat to parts of the Caribbean &/or the U.S. in about 7-11 days but plenty of time to see how things - steering currents in particular - play out. But it (would be “Lee”) is something to keep an eye on. *Current* indications are a very close call for Puerto Rico by the weekend then a turn more north a little east of Bahamas & *probably* east of Fl. If this is a threat for any of the U.S. lower 48, it would appear to be north of Jacksonville... & it’s possible it could stay east of the entire eastern seaboard but way too early to know definitively.
(4) A very strong tropical wave will emerge off the coast of Africa by Tue. & is likely to develop. But this wave is also likely to stay far to the east over the far Eastern Atlantic.
Check out the upper oceanic heat content (UOHC) [tropical cyclone heat potential/TCHP] across the SW Atlantic, Gulf & Caribbean. The warmth is very deep. But keep in mind warm ocean temps. alone doesn’t necessarily equate to a “big” hurricane season (need other ingredients & factors to be favorable too) but it’s obvious there is a lot of very warm water at great depths over the Caribbean & Gulf of Mexico:
Water vapor loop (dark blue/yellow is dry mid & upper level air):
July tropical cyclone origins:
Averages below based on climatology for the Atlantic Basin for August:
Wind shear:
Saharan dust spreads west each year from Africa by the prevailing winds (from east to west over the Atlantic). Dry air - yellow/orange/red/pink. Widespread dust is indicative of dry air that can impede the development of tropical cyclones. However, sometimes “wanna’ be” waves will just wait until they get to the other side of - or away from - the plume then try to develop if other conditions are favorable. In my personal opinion, way too much is made about the presence of Saharan dust & how it relates to tropical cyclones. In any case, the peak of Saharan dust typically is in June & July.
2023 names..... “Lee” is the next name on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random by the World Meteorological Organization... repeat every 6 years). Historic storms are retired [Florence & Michael in ’18... Dorian in ’19 & Laura, Eta & Iota in ‘20, Ida in ‘21 & Fiona & Ian in ‘22]). In fact, this year’s list of names is rather infamous with “Katrina”, “Rita” & “Wilma” retired from the ‘05 list & “Harvey”, “Irma”,“Maria” & “Nate” from the ‘17 list. The WMO decided - beginning in 2021 - that the Greek alphabet will be no longer used & instead there will be a supplemental list of names if the first list is exhausted (has only happened three times - 2005, 2020 & 2021). The naming of tropical cyclones began on a consistent basis in 1953. More on the history of naming tropical cyclones * here *.
East Atlantic:
Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear:
Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):
Deep oceanic heat content over the Gulf, Caribbean & deep tropical Atlantic. The brighter colors are expanding dramatically as we near the peak of the hurricane season.:
Sea surface temp. anomalies:
SE U.S. surface map:
Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:
Surface analysis of the Gulf:
Caribbean:
GFS wave forecast at 48 & 72 hours (2 & 3 days):
Atlantic Basin wave period forecast for 24, 48 & 72 hours respectively:
East/Central Pacific:
I wrote about “Hilary” near the top after the Atlantic waves. Elsewhere.....
West Pacific:
Global tropical activity:
“Haikui” is weakening after hammering Taiwan & will move to the China coast but much weaker:
Cox Media Group
