Jacksonville, Fl. — The “Buresh Bottom Line”: Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Survival Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.
STAY INFORMED: Get the * FREE * First Alert Weather app
FREE NEWS UPDATES, ALERTS: Action News Jax app for Apple | For Android
WATCH “The Ins & Outs of Hurricane Season”
WATCH “Preparing for the Storm”
READ the First Alert Hurricane Center “Survival Guide”
***** ALWAYS CHECK & RE-CHECK THE LATEST FORECAST & UPDATES! *****
Tropical depression #5:
* it’s too early to know if there will be impacts on Jacksonville/NE Fl. & SE Ga. - or any of Fl. or the continental U.S.
* anyone traveling to the Caribbean should stay up to date on the latest forecasts
* with the holiday weekend approaching, don’t lose track of this tropical system - continue to get updated forecasts each day
All eyes are on a the strong tropical wave speeding west/northwest over the Central Atlantic that was upgraded to t.d. #5 late Wed. evening. The depression will gain some latitude (a little more north) while moving W/NW this week. While overall conditions are favorable for strengthening for the moment, the fast movement can sometimes impede intensification of tropical systems. It appears the Bermuda High will remain strong - possibly even expanding some - through the weekend. This set-up should continue to push the wave W/NW into the weekend followed by *possibly* more of a turn to the north. Any turn north will ultimately depend on the strength & positioning of the Bermuda High east of Florida. Another wild card is any land interaction - Hispaniola & Cuba - in particular. It looks like the disturbance reaches the Central & Lesser Antilles & Eastern Caribbean by early Friday... near Haiti Saturday... & near/over Cuba Sunday.
Forecast models show a variety of solutions which is not surprising at this point. The first few days - through Sat. - are pretty straight forward with a steady, swift movement to the west/northwest. The American GFS model has trended more east recently with a pretty well developed tropical cyclone that crosses Cuba then moves into or near Florida & but is still more west than the Euro & UKMET. The European model had been having a tough time “finding” the wave but has found it recently. The model takes the system through the Northeast Caribbean & across Hispaniola where the system then becomes very diffuse while moving east of Florida & much weaker at that point. The UKMET model is just about right between the GFS & European crossing Cuba then over or near Florida. Any impact on Florida looks to be beyond the 4th of July but not by much with at least some fringe effects *possible* for South Florida as early as Monday.
A “lead” tropical wave has moved into the Eastern Caribbean but is being torn apart by strong shear. Little or no tropical development is expected while another tropical wave has just emerged off the coast of Africa.
T.D. #5:
The Bermuda High is forecast Sunday to be fairly strong but also rather far to the east over the Central Atlantic. The exact location & strength of the high will be critical on where #5 goes & how fast.
Saharan dust. Dry air - yellow/orange/red/pink - is extensive over the Central & Eastern Atlantic. Such widespread dust is common early in the hurricane season:
2021 names..... “Elsa” is the next name on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random by the World Meteorological Organization... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael in ’18... Dorian in ’19 & Laura, Eta & Iota in ‘20). Last year - 2020 - had a record 30 named storms. The WMO decided beginning in 2021 that the Greek alphabet will be no longer used & instead there will be a supplemental list of names if the first list is exhausted (has only happened twice - 2005 & 2020). More on the history of naming tropical cyclones * here *.
East Atlantic:
Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear which is widespread from the Gulf of Mexico & Caribbean eastward across much of the Atlantic:
Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):
Deep oceanic heat content is slowly increasing across the SE Gulf, Caribbean & deep tropical Atlantic:
Sea surface temp. anomalies:
SE U.S. surface map:
Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:
Surface analysis of the Gulf:
Caribbean:
Atlantic Basin wave forecast for 24, 48 & 72 hours respectively:
“Enrique” became a hurricane Saturday off the west coast of Mexico over the far Eastern Pacific but has now dissipated on the east coast of the Baja Peninsula.
Global tropical activity:
Cox Media Group
Sign Up
