Jacksonville, Fl. — THE TROPICS:
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Tropics threats/impacts for Jacksonville/NE Florida/SE Georgia: None.
The Atlantic Basin Overview:
The Atlantic hurricane season is June 1st through Nov. 30th.
The average date of the fourth named storm of the season is August 15th... first Atlantic hurricane avg. date is Aug. 11.
Next on the Atlantic list: Dolly.
The African wave train has increased- to be expected as we head toward the peak of the hurricane season Sept. 10. The NHC has highlighted two waves in particular.
(1) Wave 1 is steadily approaching the Caribbean. The strong wind shear that is present is clear to see in satellite imagery as the convection - albeit strong - is disorganized & oriented parallel to the shear vector from southwest to northeast. The strong & persistent shear - 30-40+ mph - will stymie the tropical wave & likely cause eventual dissipation over the Caribbean (though it may re-emerge on the Pacific side west of Central America & strengthen over the East Pacific while continuing westward). There will be an uptick in gusty squalls through Saturday for the Lesser Antilles but major impacts are not likely.
(2) Wave #2 is over the far Eastern Atlantic. A more west/northwest track gives this wave a better chance to survive ... initially. But overall environmental conditions in the longer range - to the west - don’t look very favorable again with more shear & dry air, but I can’t rule out the wave from finding a “sweet spot” for a time over the Central Atlantic. But significant impacts to any land areas appear - at this time - to be unlikely as the wave approaches the Northeast Caribbean/Southwest Atlantic by the middle of next week as prohibitive shear persists.
And there is another strong tropical wave has moved off the coast at a little farther north latitude just south of the Cape Verde Islands. Again - there may be some potential for gradual development.
It is worth noting - that any of these waves - particularly those a little more north in latitude
HAWAII:
A Hurricane WARNING: Hawaii County...
A Tropical Storm WARNING: Maui County, including the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai andKahoolawe...
A Tropical Storm WATCH: Oahu... Kauai County, including the islands of Kauai and Niihau.
Tropical storm Lala has formed southeast of Hawaii. This disturbance is expected to steadily strengthen over reaching Hawaii over the weekend as a tropical storm or possibly even a hurricane. The center is forecast to pass just south of the Big Island but there will likely be at least some impacts for all the islands over the weekend. Lala may eventually move west beyond the dateline next week.
‘Velocity potential anomalies’ below. “Rising” air (green lines) equates with an uptick in overall convection. With rising air, conditions are generally more favorable for tropical development. Where there are brown lines, the air is generally sinking & is often less conducive to tropical cyclones (though not impossible to have development).
The “Buresh Bottom Line”: Always be prepared!.....First Alert Hurricane Preparation Guide... City of Jacksonville Preparedness Guide... Georgia Hurricane Guide.
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Federal Alliance for Safe Homes (FLASH) * here *.
REMEMBER WHEN A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE IS APPROACHING: Taping windows is *not* recommended & will not keep glass from breaking. Instead close curtains & blinds.
Realize the forecast cone (”cone of uncertainty”) is the average forecast error over a given time - out to 6 days - & *does not* indicate the width of the storm &/or where damage might occur.
The map below shows the *average* time for a tropical wave coming off Africa to travel west & northwest. Only about 1 in 5 tropical waves - on average - become a tropical cyclone of some sort (depression/storm/hurricane):
Water vapor loop (dark blue/yellow is dry mid & upper level air):
August Atlantic tropical cyclone origins:
Averages below based on climatology for the Atlantic Basin for August:
Wind shear (red - strong shear; green - low shear). Shear is typically strong to start the hurricane season:
Saharan dust spreads west each year from Africa driven by the prevailing winds (from east to west over the Atlantic). Dry air = yellow/orange/red/pink. Widespread dust is indicative of dry air that *can* interfere with the development of tropical cyclones. However, sometimes “wanna’ be” waves will just wait until they get to the other side of - or away from - the dust plume then try to develop if other conditions are favorable (we saw this with Beryl & Debby last year). It’s my personal opinion that there is way too much “hoopla” about the presence of Saharan dust & how it relates to tropical cyclones. In any case, the peak of Saharan dust typically is in June & July, & we are indeed seeing a large “blobs” of Saharan dust over the Central & Eastern Atlantic that’s thinning with westward extent but enough of it to make for hazy skies across the Caribbean & - at times - across parts of Florida.
2026 names..... “Dolly” is the next name on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random by the World Meteorological Organization... repeat every 6 years). Historic storms are retired [Florence & Michael in ’18... Dorian in ’19 (the last time this year’s list was used) ... Laura, Eta & Iota in ‘20 ... Ida in ‘21 ... Fiona & Ian in ‘22... no names were retired in ‘23 for the first time since 2014... Beryl, Helene & Milton in 2024 & Melissa in 2025). The WMO decided - beginning in 2021 - that the Greek alphabet will be no longer used & instead there will be a supplemental list of names if the first list is exhausted (has only happened three times - 2005, 2020 & 2021). The naming of tropical cyclones began on a consistent basis in 1953. More on the history of naming tropical cyclones * here *.
Hurricane season climatology:
East Atlantic:
Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear - typically the “enemy” of tropical systems:
Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):
Deep oceanic heat content over the Gulf, Caribbean & tropical Atlantic. Brighter colors = warmer temps.:
Sea surface temps.:
Sea surface temp. anomalies:
SE U.S. surface map:
Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:
Surface analysis of the Gulf:
Caribbean:
Atlantic Basin wave period forecast for 24, 48, 72 & 96 hours respectively:
East & Central Pacific:
This basin will most likely be the generally more active area in ‘26 due to the anticipated El Nino.
“Hernan” will not survive very long with no impacts to any land areas:
Central Pacific:
A Hurricane WARNING: Hawaii CountyA Tropical Storm WATCH: Maui County, including the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and Kahoolawe
Tropical storm Lala has formed southeast of Hawaii. This disturbance is expected to steadily strengthen over reaching Hawaii over the weekend as a tropical storm or possibly even a hurricane. The center is forecast to pass just south of the Big Island but there will likely be at least some impacts for all the islands over the weekend. Lala may eventually move west beyond the dateline next week.
Hawaii satellite imagery:
Global tropical activity:
West Pacific:
“Nangka”:
“Peilou”:
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