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The long term drought continues across Jacksonville/NE Florida & SE Georgia. Rain since Sept. 1st is more than 17 inches below average in Jacksonville. ‘Exceptional’ drought has only occurred once since the year 2000 in Duval Co. - 2012. The category as of April 29th is ‘extreme’ across Duval but may very well reach exceptional before long. 2026 is tied with 2007 & 2011/2012 for the most extensive & significant drought across Northeast Florida/Southeast Georgia this century so far.
The chart below is pretty telling - drought cycles of varying intensity are very common for NE Fl. & SE Ga. going back to the late 1800’s. And there are periods of very wet years. But the cycles are pretty regular with no clear trend one way or another. One should keep in mind that the public water demand is far greater now than at anytime in the past due to a much higher population.
No surprise - each spike in drought conditions equals some of the most significant wildfires in NE Fl./SE Ga. since 2000:
The horrible Brantley Co. “Highway 82″ wildfire in Georgia finally was doused by a half inch to an inch of rain Sunday evening, April 26th.
There will be continued rain chances through Saturday across SE Georgia & NE Florida offering at least *some* relief, but the long term drought will persist. There is the potential for an inch or more of rain through Sat. (May 2) night before we dry out again Sunday through at least the middle of the week, May 6-7. There are indications that the jet stream will remain active & farther south for at least the first couple weeks of May & perhaps beyond which may allow for some fronts to move across the local area offering some additional rain chances.
Ahead of the front Wed., April 29th Jacksonville tied an all-time April record high of 95 degrees (April 21, 1968) which also broke the daily record high of 93 set in 1991. The average high for the end of April is 83 degrees. Once the cold front moves through late Saturday, a nice shot of cooler air will follow for Sun. through Tue., May 3-5. 2026 has been a year of record temps. so far with 4 record lows & 8 record highs.
We turn the calendars to May. The averages for JIA:
The National Hurricane Center is offering free hurricane awareness webinars through May. The webinars are free, but the NHC does require registration - go * here *.
WEDNESDAY, MAY 6 at 2pm ET / 1pm CT
Title: NOAA’s Hurricane Field Program: 2025 Highlights & Plans for 2026
Presenters: Dr. Sim Aberson (Meteorologist), Dr. Joe Cione (Lead Meteorologist for Emerging Technologies), and Dr. Jason Sippel (Meteorologist), NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, Hurricane Research Division
Description: The second webinar will cover updates from NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory Hurricane Research Division (HRD). HRD improves forecasts and helps NOAA create a weather-ready nation by collecting observations, assimilating data, and streamlining modeling and prediction sciences.
TUESDAY, MAY 12 at 2pm ET / 1pm CT
Title: Hurricane Impacts in the Caribbean: Maria, Melissa and Unique Recovery Challenges (in Spanish / en español)
Presenter: Ernesto Rodriguez, Meteorologist-in-Charge, NOAA National Weather Service, San Juan, Puerto Rico
Description: The third webinar (conducted only in Spanish) will focus on the similarities between Hurricanes María and Melissa, emphasizing how these catastrophic storms cause widespread damage to infrastructure and ecosystems, and will also examine the distinct recovery challenges faced by island communities compared with those on the mainland.
MONDAY, MAY 18 at 3pm ET / 2pm CT
Title: Enhancing Capacity for Risk Communication in Vietnamese-American Communities
Presenter: Dr. Tracie Sempier, Resilience Engagement Lead, Mississippi-Alabama Sea Grant Consortium, Lisa White and Jane Nguyen, Boat People SOS; Danielle Manning, NOAA National Weather Service, New Orleans
Description: The fourth webinar will cover risk communication gaps in Vietnamese-American communities across the northern Gulf (Alabama, Louisiana, and Mississippi). It will explore how to strengthen communities’ abilities to manage impacts from natural and human-caused disasters and increase awareness among weather communicators of the language and cultural barriers these communities face.
TUESDAY, MAY 26 at 2pm ET / 1pm CT
Title: “Weird Science”: Fascinating Lessons in the World of Tropical Cyclones
Presenter: Brian LaMarre, Chief Meteorologist and Founder, Inspire Weather, LLC
Description: The fifth webinar will dive into some of the lesser known, intriguing facts surrounding the history, science, technology and associated impacts from tropical cyclones. Real-life stories and impacts will be shared from memorable storms, as well as curious connections to public health and how terms like “Fujiwhara”, “ERC”, and “African Dust” relate to hurricanes. Learn more and dispel myths and other common misconceptions surrounding one of Earth’s most destructive yet awe-inspiring natural hazards.
