Talking the Tropics With Mike: Low pressure east of Florida, north of the Bahamas

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Weak low pressure continues north of the Bahamas & east of NE Florida. While a bit better organized, the sytsem is expected to stay weak through the weekend though a tropical depression is not out of the question. Virtually all of the showers & storms are over the eastern portion of the circulation & this kind of “organization” is likely to persist through Sunday. Thanks to a narrow ridge to the north/northwest beneath a departing upper level trough, forecast models have come into better agreement on a more westward movement crossing Florida Sunday/Sunday night while weakening. The low should come ashore Sunday afternoon or night not too far from Melbourne producing some heavier rain & storms for especially Central & South Florida. For Jacksonville/NE Fl./SE Ga.:

* breezy northeast winds creating dangerous rip currents at area beaches through Sunday evening

* in combination with a full moon, higher than avg. tides causing minor, localized flooding at some parts of the coast & intracoastal + along the St. Johns River & its tributaries

* at least some uptick in showers Sunday/Sunday night

A pesky old frontal boundary remains stretched out/stalled across the W. Atlantic to S. Carolina & Georgia as a surge of northeast winds has pushed a surface trough well south into Florida - near/south of I-4 which is what the low east of Florida is likely to track along. While conditions (shear especially, out of the W/NW 20-30 mph) are not particularly favorable for much development, close proximity to the Gulf Stream is a bit disconcerting. As the narrow upper level ridge builds to the north, the low will drift west through the weekend & is likely to degenerate into a stretched out trough of low pressure by Monday or so while moving over the Gulf of Mexico. Again - I do not expect this low to be a strong system but rainfall will increase across especially Central & South Fl.

South Fl. Water Management District:

Saharan dust. Dry air - yellow/orange/red/pink - is extensive over the Caribbean & Central & Eastern Atlantic. Such widespread dust is common early in the hurricane season - through July - & is indicative of dry air that can impede the development of tropical cyclones. However, sometimes “wanna’ be” waves will just wait until they get to the other side of the plume then try to develop if everything else happens to be favorable.

2021 names..... “Fred” is the next name on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random by the World Meteorological Organization... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael in ’18... Dorian in ’19 & Laura, Eta & Iota in ‘20). Last year - 2020 - had a record 30 named storms. The WMO decided beginning in 2021 that the Greek alphabet will be no longer used & instead there will be a supplemental list of names if the first list is exhausted (has only happened twice - 2005 & 2020). More on the history of naming tropical cyclones * here *.

East Atlantic:

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear which is widespread from the Gulf of Mexico & Caribbean eastward across much of the Atlantic:

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

Deep oceanic heat content is slowly increasing across the SE Gulf, Caribbean & deep tropical Atlantic:

Sea surface temp. anomalies:

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:

Caribbean:

Atlantic Basin wave forecast for 24, 48 & 72 hours respectively:

The E. Pacific has gone quiet now....

In the W. Pacific.... broad-eyed typhoon “In-Fa” is forecast to turn more northwest staying well northeast of Taiwan (but with fringe effects for Northern Taiwan) through the weekend... well south & west of Japan... & into China early to mid week.

A second system - “Nepartak” - has developed over the W. Pacific along a broad surface front & could impact Japan - including Tokyo - by the middle of next week but is not expected to be a strong storm. Nonetheless, some heavy rain may affect the Olympic games mid to late next week depending on the location & intensity of Nepartak.