Talking the Tropics With Mike: Low pressure merging with a front over the Central Atlantic

May slowly take on some subtropical characteristics by the weekend

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An area to continue to watch will be the Central Atlantic south of Bermuda where weak low pressure has developed & is merging with a cold front. Some forecast models show the low stalling by late week/this weekend over the Atlantic at which point it’s possible the low could acquire some tropical or subtropical characteristics over the Central Atlantic while affecting no land areas.

Atlantic Basin wave forecast for 24, 48 & 72 hours respectively:



Saharan dust, dry air:

2020 names..... “Wilfred” was the last name on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random by the World Meteorological Organization... repeat every 6 years... historic storms are retired (Florence & Michael in ’18 & Dorian is certain to be retired from the ’19 list). Interesting side note: the last six of the names on the ’20 list had never been used. So it’s on to the Greek alphabet. "Kappa” is next... the first time the Greek alphabet has been used since 2005 (total of 28 named storms using 6 Greek letter names in ’05 [there was one unnamed storm). Theta broke the record for the most Atlantic storms in a single season on record at 29.

East Atlantic:

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear:

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

Deep oceanic heat content:

Sea surface temp. anomalies:

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:

Caribbean:

Global tropical activity:



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