Jacksonville, Fl — Just over a week before we celebrate America’s 250th, GasBuddy has announced its gas price forecast, projecting the national average will fall to approximately $3.75 per gallon on July 4th.
If that proves true it would be the second most expensive Independence Day on record behind the all-time high of $4.80 on July 4, 2022.
GasBuddy says its projection comes despite six consecutive weeks of national average declines following a spring spike driven by the Strait of Hormuz closure.
The recent U.S.-Iran framework agreement has helped ease supply fears and pull prices lower, but the accord remains fragile and risks to the upside are significant.
“Six weeks of declines sounds like good news, and in some ways it is, but the context matters,” said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy.
”At roughly $3.75, this would be the second most expensive July 4 ever recorded, roughly 65 cents higher than last year and nearly $1 above where prices started in 2026. The U.S.-Iran agreement gives markets hope, but it’s being tested, and any breakdown in those talks could reverse the recent relief quickly,“ De Haan said.
Only 2022’s record spike, driven by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and pandemic-era demand surges, has produced a more expensive Independence Day at the pump.
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